I think the rate should bump up to 30%. There is no other direction than North. And we are just starting on this. Most emerging markets are still using feature phones. Smartphone will be coming to them soon.
With the pricing structure pushed by the service providers, it makes sense to get a new phone every 2 years. What's amazing is how many iPhone owners that I know that can't bear waiting for another 6 months to save $200+ dollars... We're really getting to the point now in the US where the growth is associated with younger and younger kids getting phones!
I wonder how much of the less than expected overall growth for 2011 was due to people who don't see a need for, or want to learn to use, a smartphone who just didn't bother to upgrade because they just want a phone and consider what they have to be quite adequate.
Just curious to know....how does this analysis for future growth done, especially during an uncertain time? Based on what information? Do the analysts consider the growth projection data from the major manufacturers? What else?