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CPG
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Freelancer
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
CPG   5/17/2012 8:24:49 PM
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One chicken that will certainly come home to roost in China is the fallout from the one-child-per-family program. Coastal manufacturing in cities such as Shanghai is starting to run up against low-cost labor shortages, while the population ages. Japan has this issue in spades, aggravated by what amounts to a no-immigration policy. Given that China's strong suit is manufacturing, this could represent a "wall".

Bert22306
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CEO
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
Bert22306   5/17/2012 8:12:50 PM
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I think the major cultural disconnect is that a people would think it is the government's job to "develop the country." From a western point of view, or perhaps more appropriately from a US point of view, on the contrary, the country would have developed more, over time, if the government hadn't been there hamstringing the process. I think this goes back to the conversation about the new processor architecture, which appears also to be controlled by the government. From my own point of view, I would find it very disturbing if Americans started giving credit for US innovation to the US government. I would consider that to be a really worrisome trend. Government funding for basic research is appropriate, I think, at least to some extent.

me3
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
me3   5/17/2012 3:37:30 PM
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People leave China to escape from the Chinese people, which turns into mobs every once a while. China needs the rule of law, backed by a strong government which also abide by the law. It doesn't need democracy in the next 100 years. Westerners who never saw a Chinese mob would always prescribe democracy. It is like women prescribe tits for everyone. It doesn't work.

phlei
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
phlei   5/17/2012 7:43:16 AM
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China's growth doesn't prove the brain drain issue at all... It is mainly manufacturing and low cost.. They need the Foxconn management style. By the way, that kind of management style is from Taiwan and learned from Japanese, very effective in the production environment. As far as I know, the poll of the Chinese Millionaires and 70% of them all plan to move abroad. As I mentioned before the Chinese political system can't keep the best and the rich because the highly controlled situation. When Iran was under Shah's ruling, so many foreign students from Iran in the universities in the west but did then go home to help Iran? Nope, they all stayed in the west and was a huge brain drain. China needs a transparent political system, not the princeling ruling. The economic number means something but the infrastructure building is the main GDP growth. Taiwan was growing over 10% for over twenty years under the KMT ruling but the people were leaving the countries. Taiwan high tech starts to blossom when the democracy set in. The capital market really allured the oversea Chinese talent to go back. I don't know what do you mean ture Chines, even the princelings send their kids as young as 12 year old to the west to get educated. It isn't just one person like Bo but you definitely can't count with your fingers.

george.leopold
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
george.leopold   5/17/2012 1:21:39 AM
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It is a historical fact that the central government managed to feed over 1 billion people. (It also a fact that the central government almost destroyed Chinese agriculture.) Any analysis of Chinese development since 1949 must take into account centuries of imperialism that culminated in the horrors Imperial Japan visited on the Chinese (and other Asian nations) during WW II. Few in the West know that the Chinese national anthem is "Arise," as in rise from your knees. We can argue endlessly about the Chinese form of government, but I'd say the Party has it hands full meeting the rising expectations of China's middle class. Moreover, as we report, talented provincial and municipal officials are challenging the central government. These local officials, along with some of EE Times' friends in China, represent the next generation of leaders -- not the corrupt princelings who are struggling to retain their privileges.

george.leopold
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
george.leopold   5/17/2012 1:13:00 AM
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I thought about that, Bert, and I don't think what we are saying here is "fear mongering." What we are saying is that we need to get off our duffs and compete with China, the world's fastest growing economy. This competition will likely promote innovation in both nations. (Junko Yoshida's reporting from China will undoubtedly illuminate the facts on the ground so that we can better judge what is going on in China and move beyond simplistic debates about who's ahead and who's falling behind.) There something else going on at the macroeconomic level: It's what the China expert Dan Breznitz calls the "fragmentation of production." Breznitz argues that this fragmentation means China does not have to master breakthrough innovations to succeed. China has changed the game, and we need understand how so that we can compete.

microe
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
microe   5/16/2012 8:59:08 PM
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Comparing what other governments have done in the past decades with what Chinese government has achieved, from the perspective of economic development, I don't see many reasons to criticize. How many times you have seen a population of more than 1B can develop so fast for so long in the history? Doesn't this government deserve some compliments? It is actually interesting to think why media always full of criticism only. In terms of political system, it is meaningless to say which one is good and which one is bad. Numbers talk. regarding the brain drain, China's growth has proven that it is not an issue. True Chinese will never abandon China just because of a better life abroad, otherwise, China would have diminished so many times in history. It is in the blood. Whoever abandon the motherland will not hesitate to abandon the new land if things change.

Bert22306
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CEO
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
Bert22306   5/16/2012 7:51:53 PM
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Yes, that's what I think will work to bring a balance to this export of manufacturing and design out of the West. Not necessarily that Chinese talent leaves China, but that Chinese government policies, and the people's own attitudes toward "authority," will slowly change in China.

Bert22306
User Rank
CEO
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
Bert22306   5/16/2012 7:30:46 PM
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I agree with what George says here, although at the same time, I'm wondering whether this is the sort of "fear mongering" that Junko was talking about? Of course Chinese engineers and scientists can innovate. They prove that when they come to the West to get their education. The problem is only that their government runs everything. Everyone by now should know how that works. I was actually struck by this attitude during the Beijing Olympics. It seems to me that a shift in the people's attitudes is needed before they can rteally shine, and it appears that maybe this is starting to happen.

phlei
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Rookie
re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
phlei   5/16/2012 7:03:37 PM
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That is exactly it is tough for China to progress because they are working hard to mingle into the West. China political system is the west's best friend. The Chinese foreign students are increasing and the age is getting younger and younger. They all want to settle in a better environment. Just look at the immigration Visa application in the SF bay areas, there are over two thousand cases from China, and each one has to make initial investment over $1M. The second and third are like India and Korea which dwarf in comparison to China. As the people get richer and richer, they all want to leave the country and try their best to stay in the West, especially in the USA. I know someone got a PHD from Norway and he moved his family to Canada to look for jobs. He couldn't find the job in the North America and found a teaching job in HK but he left his family in Canada. Too many of them all want to leave the country,especially you are rich and well-educated. It is a huge braid drain from China and benefit a great deal of the West, just like the Europeans before the WWII. Of course , if China political system changes, then everything will be different and it will be like Israeli.

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