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ibm221
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
ibm221   5/16/2012 2:28:36 AM
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In the end US is like a headless giant walking or zigzaging. yeap, obama is the head and he is brainless (same sex marriage , LOL). all you smart ordinarys can keep on cheering and wishing, maybe your next mormon president could save you all.

chanj0
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
chanj0   5/16/2012 4:06:50 AM
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China is going through an economy cycle that post industrialized countries, primarily the western countries, have gone through. There are paths for them to follow. IMO, the theoretical wall would be when they have to pave their own way. In theory, it may come when innovation is necessary to keep the economic growth. By innovation, I don't believe we are constraints to technological innovation. I believe business model is evolution over time. Who could imagine Google is able to monetize information of the whole world 20 years ago? Similarly, facebook may be able to turn personal information into gold. Will China be able to transform way of doing business as well as create new products using different technologies? Only time can tell. With regard to US and western world, pulling manufacturing back to the country may be a solution. Innovating manufacturing facilities may be a better way to go. There are products that are better off manufactured elsewhere, for example, toaster, TV sets. There are products that shall be manufactured in the country - the top tier technology, for example, some CPUs and sophisticated equipment, high efficiency solar panel. Government can either encourage or create incentive to keep certain businesses in the country. At the end of the day, it is the business owners, says corporations, decide where the facility is going to be.

ibm221
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
ibm221   5/16/2012 5:17:08 AM
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wake up, encourage or create incentive won't help anymore. what americans need to do is live in a dorm and ride a bike. otherwise how much govt can encourage to offset your transportation cost?

KarlFredrik
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
KarlFredrik   5/16/2012 12:55:22 PM
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I think anyone doubting the inventiveness of chinese should visit any random technical university in the western world. I would say that maybe 30%+ of administrative staff and phd students are chinese in anything semiconductor-related here in Sweden. The same trend is true in pretty much the whole western world. Somehow I get the feeling that people complaining about chinese "copying" and lack of inventiveness never have tried actually building something themselves. 99% of the time modifying an existing design is both smarter and a wiser choice than pie-in-the-sky inventiveness.

george.leopold
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
george.leopold   5/16/2012 2:34:51 PM
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My guess is that many talented Chinese researchers in fields like semiconductors study in Europe and the U.S. because there simply is no equivalent (yet) in China. Many of these researchers will of course go back to China and will no doubt help build the type of infrastructure China needs to go from what the experts call second-generation to first-generation innovation.

pixies
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
pixies   5/16/2012 6:43:47 PM
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The real wall for China's development is the political system, it is now so unfit for the reality of China and dramatic change will happen, , peacefully or violently, in the next couple of decades. A innovative China with a modern political system is a benefit to the world.

phlei
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
phlei   5/16/2012 7:03:37 PM
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That is exactly it is tough for China to progress because they are working hard to mingle into the West. China political system is the west's best friend. The Chinese foreign students are increasing and the age is getting younger and younger. They all want to settle in a better environment. Just look at the immigration Visa application in the SF bay areas, there are over two thousand cases from China, and each one has to make initial investment over $1M. The second and third are like India and Korea which dwarf in comparison to China. As the people get richer and richer, they all want to leave the country and try their best to stay in the West, especially in the USA. I know someone got a PHD from Norway and he moved his family to Canada to look for jobs. He couldn't find the job in the North America and found a teaching job in HK but he left his family in Canada. Too many of them all want to leave the country,especially you are rich and well-educated. It is a huge braid drain from China and benefit a great deal of the West, just like the Europeans before the WWII. Of course , if China political system changes, then everything will be different and it will be like Israeli.

Bert22306
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
Bert22306   5/16/2012 7:30:46 PM
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I agree with what George says here, although at the same time, I'm wondering whether this is the sort of "fear mongering" that Junko was talking about? Of course Chinese engineers and scientists can innovate. They prove that when they come to the West to get their education. The problem is only that their government runs everything. Everyone by now should know how that works. I was actually struck by this attitude during the Beijing Olympics. It seems to me that a shift in the people's attitudes is needed before they can rteally shine, and it appears that maybe this is starting to happen.

Bert22306
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
Bert22306   5/16/2012 7:51:53 PM
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Yes, that's what I think will work to bring a balance to this export of manufacturing and design out of the West. Not necessarily that Chinese talent leaves China, but that Chinese government policies, and the people's own attitudes toward "authority," will slowly change in China.

microe
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re: Will China hit a (great) wall? Donít bet on it
microe   5/16/2012 8:59:08 PM
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Comparing what other governments have done in the past decades with what Chinese government has achieved, from the perspective of economic development, I don't see many reasons to criticize. How many times you have seen a population of more than 1B can develop so fast for so long in the history? Doesn't this government deserve some compliments? It is actually interesting to think why media always full of criticism only. In terms of political system, it is meaningless to say which one is good and which one is bad. Numbers talk. regarding the brain drain, China's growth has proven that it is not an issue. True Chinese will never abandon China just because of a better life abroad, otherwise, China would have diminished so many times in history. It is in the blood. Whoever abandon the motherland will not hesitate to abandon the new land if things change.

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