The main issue is that at the 300-mm transition the chipmakers pressured the equipment makers to take on all the risk saying that the first companies to offer 300-mm versions in various equipment categories would "clean up" and get lets of orders.
The the 300-mm transition stalled (I forget why, but i think there was some economic crash or others) and was long and drawn out. The second movers were able to catch up and a lot of equipment makers got burned.
This time around we are down to close to monopoly suppliers...ASML, Applied Materials ...and they are starting to tell customers.....you want this work doing...you got to foot the bill...up front....and sign some purchase orders.
Moore's law is not so much about getting more transistors on a wafer by making them smaller, it's basically about reducing the cost per transistor.
Making transistors smaller using EUV is at the moment too expensive so reducing the cost per transistor by moving to 450nm is the logic way to go and meet Moore's law.
I don`t see samsung joining, simply bcoz IBM, GLOFO and the rest will not be happy and its not certain ASML will produce the results, if ASML fail, thIeR shares will tank and the money invested will be lost..
I think TSMC will join (best case scenario)
I can smell the desperation of intel, while competitors is chasing closer from everywhere, there is only one direction, up. and there is only sky there and it don't have a wing...
they better invest in CERN as well, they could offer quark level tech for them.
Intel must double-down on 450mm because growing millimeters of silicon diameter is cheaper and far more predictable than reducing electromagnetic wavelengths to X-ray range. Presumably, ASML can build a 450mm stage (other, much smaller companies are) with greater success than the SXPL machine they are trying to build. Meanwhile, they sell multiple profitable immersion tools for optical multi patterning.
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