"The company reported second quarter sales of $8.7 billion for its PC Client Group, up 3 percent from the first quarter. Sales for Intel's Data Center Group grew 14 percent in the second quarter to $2.8 billion, while other revenue for the Intel Architecture Group grew 3 percent to $1.1 billion, Intel said"
The remaining $0.9billion in ?
Hi Dylan & Bill - Applying the Cowan LRA forecasting model to the last 20 years of Intel's quarterly sales numbers (82 data points from 1992 through 2012) yields the following sales numbers for Intel's 3Q, 4Q and full year:
3Q12 frcst est. = $14.34 billion;
4Q12 frcst est. = $14.49 billion;
FY 2012 = $55.24 billion vs. Intel's $57.2 billion guidance
Therefore, 2012 sales expectation corresponds to a yr-o-yr sales growth prediction of 2.3 percent.
Mike Cowan (developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model)
I don't know if I would describe these times as "doldrums," at least not for Intel.
3-5% sales growth in 2012 vs. 2011, and an expectation that the second half of 2012 will be better than the first half?
Sure, they reduced their guidance from what it was before, but their guidance is still quite positive.
I am guessing a few reasons why they are bullish on Q4:
1) Ivybridge ramp to hit the peak during Q4 (~50% of products)
2) Lot more ultrabook designs and hence lot more ultrabook sales (Ultrabooks command higher ASPs)
3) Windows 8
4) Traditional holiday shopping
Given Intel's execution the last few years unless Europe/America go into a recession and take the world down with them, I would expect Intel to meet the guidance..... Interesting times to watch!!
Thanks Bill for breaking down those numbers. That does seem to be a tall order. I would only point to what Otellini said (which I am sure you heard also), that they are still expecting the second half of the year to be better than the first half. But you have to wonder if Q4 can be that strong.
Intel had sales of $12.9 billion in 1Q12 and $13.5 billion in 2Q12 (up 5% from 1Q12). Using the mid-point of its guidance, the company expects 3Q12 sales to be $14.3 billion (up 6% from 2Q12) and full year sales to be $57.2 billion (up 4% from 2011). Given all of this, $57.2 billion less $12.9 (1Q12), $13.5 (2Q12), and $14.3 (3Q12) would mean that, in order to reach the full year guidance of $57.2 billion, Intel's sales in 4Q12 would need to be $16.5 billion, a gain of 15% over 3Q12! Are they really expecting this kind of surge in 4Q12?
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