Uhh, and you were under the odd impression that the Tesla and the Leaf account for anything remotely close to 50 percent of cars on the road? Or even that their sales are skyrocketing, making such a predicion likely?
Perhaps best stick with Apple evangelising?
That was exactly my take when I read the headline. He doesn't need to convince the whole world - just the investors forking over millions into Tesla. I can only imagine the marketing presentations from Tesla showing the hockey stick curve (in this case it wouldn't have a handle it would ramp straight up) with TAMs in the 100s of billions.
Do you own an iPhone? I'm guessing not. Average battery life lasts well more than a couple days with average usage. I'm tired of anti-smartphone luddites exaggerating charging intervals in an attempt to make them seem like the "smart" ones.
Very optimistic prediction from Musk to say the least. Either he is party to a revolutionary breakthrough in battery technology or he has inside knowledge of Govt policies for the next two decades, else he is just prophesying.
Going by ground realities, no, it won't happen for better or worse. He is also totally discounting the fact that gasoline vehicles could become more efficient in due course which would keep the electric option still relatively expensive.
I think you are under the impression that "fuel cell" is some kind of battery technology. It is not.
A fuel cell converts H2 into electricity, which then powers an all-electric drivetrain. Which means, you can get a truly electric car without having to rely on a battery as your main energy source.
The problem with H2 itself as fuel, though, is storage. H2, very small atoms, requires very high pressure to store efficiently, plus it also much prefers to escape from the tank.
So instead, you store the H2 as a hydrocarbon fuel, a biofuel perhaps or even gasoline itself, and now you have an electric car without the liability of that battery and not limited to the ~30 percent efficiency of internal combustion engines.
If the pot has to be stirred, I say let's stir it in this direction.
If man was intended to fly he would have been born with wings, it is impossible to record the human voice. People who can - do. The world is full of naysayers, Ask Goddard, Deming, Ford, The Wright brothers, Edison, the list goes on. When Kennedy said Lets go to the moon. We went - not because it was easy or "could be done in his day" but because he believed it could be done! There is a lot that can be achieved - so please naysayers - get out of the way you're holding up progress.
Musk's prediction will only come true if there is a breakthrough in battery technology.
There's certainly enough money chasing the issue, but that doesn't mean anyone will find a breakthrough.
I say Musk is just stirring the pot with wishful thinking and big talk. But I give him the benefit of the doubt that his motive is to rally people toward a better planet. I don't think he is just trying to pump up Tesla.