Hi Peter - the "softness" in June global semi sales has translated to a drop in the 2012 sales growth expectation to -0.9 percent from last month's prediction of (plus) 0.1 percent - essentially flat growth - as gleamed from the latest run of the Cowan LRA forecasting model. The latest sales forecast projection for full year 2012 came in at $296.97 billion (compared to last month's forecast estimate of $299.84 billion) based on June's actual sales of $26.33 billion. Since the WSTS has not yet posted its June HBR (expected on Aug 7th), June's actual sales number, quoted above, was abstracted by back-tracking the monthly 3MMA sales numbers for May and June as posted on the SIA's website in their monthly 3MMA GSR.
Mike Cowan (independent market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales)
....the growth forecasts are falling and going negative.
There's you forcecasting a 1 percent contraction and I just heard that ABI Research are saying the chip market could contract by up to 5 percent.
Market researchers seem to start the years expecting/hoping for 10 percent growth but as they gain more and more evidence towards the full year the numbers dive.
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