I don't disagree with much of what you say
BUT the phrase "exceptional strong iphone 5 sales which are looking to break all past records," seems premature.
How do you know iPhone 5 will sell strongly?
I do agree that it is unlikely to have a 20-nm processor inside and could be 45-nm, 32-nm or 28-nm.
Paul O. needs a new business model for Intel. No model works for 40 years without adjustment.
It is easy to blame "macro environment" but that will not slow exceptional strong iphone 5 sales which are looking to break all past records.
Intel's problem is the cost of new technologies just keeps going up while the new silicon technologies are offering much less market value in return. To put 3D 22nm finfet in production will cost a record ~$20B capex (~10B/year for 2 years) for little to no real product level improvement (sandy bridge is just as good as ivy bridge to nearly all users).
Going forward intel needs to fund suppliers like ASML ($5B check already) to develop technologies plus even higher capex.
There much be a better way to send ~$25B to get a better ROI in market.