"Every analyst, blogger, crossing guard and village idiot is bursting with theories..." "The market value for iPhone theories has therefore plunged to an all-time low..."
But you still had to give us yours.
A link reported in LinkedIn's DRAM & Flash Product Professionals suggests that the iPhone5 may use PCM (see http://seekingalpha.com/article/858041-the-iphone-5-technology-rabbit-hole) .
Cue "Volatile Memory" response...
We are a long way from my phone replacing everything in my wallet. As long as I have the wallet (which I expect to be decades), NFC is more useful there than in my phone.
A phone is a tool, but one that costs $600 and is fragile and slippery. A wallet has none of these defects.
IHS iSuppli had some interesting comments on the conflicting reports about NFC in iPhone 5 in a news release issued Sept. 11. One factoid that the market research firm pointed out is that 106 million NFC-enabled Android phones have already shipped. IHS said iOS 6 would include support for Apple's new Passbook app, which will allow users to employ their iPhone 5 to redeem coupons, movie tickets, boarding passes and loyalty cards, and to conduct other financial transactions. Apple may choose to partner Passbook with new hardware support in the iPhone 5, such as NFC, IHS said.
"If the iPhone 5 does include NFC, Apple will help the global market for NFC-enabled cellphones expand shipments by 118 percent to reach 233 million units in 2012," said Jagdish Rebello, director for consumer and communications at IHS. This compares to 94 percent growth in 2011, according to IHS.
I visit Japan a fair bit too and I always feel a bit miffed that, as a visitor, I can't use the contactless payment options which are, quite literally, _everywhere_. Shops, public transport, vending machines and more. It is astonishingly convenient for those who can access it and, in Japan, pretty much everybody does.
I see your point about wanting it in your wallet and not your phone. I am agnostic about this. On balance, I'd rather have it on my phone as it's my phone that has the wireless connectivity capability to re-load itself and manage the payment systems.
This technology _will_ take off. It really is only a matter of time. When it does arrive, uptake will be astonishingly fast and near universal.
The iPhone, being the single-model product that it is, has the capability to be the catalyst for contactless payment in a huge number of markets. I, for one, hope they take the plunge. I can envisage a huge segment of the retail sector which desperately wants to attract the demographic which carry iPhones. If iPhone provide the capability, they will provide the infrastructure.
I live in Japan, where NFC is already common for things such as train passes. It is great - but with a big caveat: I do not want it on my phone, but in my wallet, in card form.
Why? Because my iphone is delicate, and taking it out of my pocket is by far the most likely time for me to drop it. My wallet, in contrast, is an invincible hunk of leather. The way I use NFC in practice is to pull out my wallet and plop in on the scanner for a fraction of a second. There is no fuss and it just works. If the NFC were in my phone, I would have to be more careful pulling the NFC out of my pocket, and then be more careful again as I either gently touched it to or brought it into close alignment with this scanner. This would actually be a lot harder and more likely to result in a dropped phone.
I want NFC in a credit card, not my phone.