Brian, Bill McLean's forecast is for the next decade; my correlation with capital spending affects only the next 2 or 3 years. I'll leave the long term predictions to the long term forecasting experts.
Wally, very insightsful piece! It begs the question: do you buy into Bill McLean's take at IC Insights that semiconductor CAGRs will move back toward 8 percent annual in the next decade? (http://eetimes.com/electronics-news/4396587/Fab-lite--fewer-startups-to-fuel-doubling-of-IC-growth-rates)