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krisi
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
krisi   10/11/2012 7:46:36 PM
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thank you Andrzej!

Andrzej11
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
Andrzej11   10/11/2012 7:19:50 PM
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Hi Kris, Here's a link for Gordon's paper, http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2012/08/IS-U.S.-ECONOMIC-GROWTH-OVER-FALTERING-INNOVATION-CONFRONTS.pdf In my opinion, Gordon is way to pessimistic and his 100 year forecast just doesn't add up. He sounds like Hansen back in the 1930's who, with the passage of time, was proven wrong as well. Andrzej

TanjB
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
TanjB   10/11/2012 5:11:46 PM
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There is the other Moore's law: cost per acre of finished chip remains constant. In some ways these are dual. As ways are found to reduce dimensions, and if that delivers functional benefits, then there will be a tendency to aim for similar costs to cram more function into the same size. But as factors like power density, leakage, and other limits tend to eliminate the advantage of making smaller chips we could see a trend to making cheaper chips. After all, the Si only costs a few cents per sq cm. If it starts to make sense to produce each sq cm more cheaply (and tricks like vertical connection allow us to package them small and keep connection distance low) then we will continue to see increased functionality at falling cost. Just like we have had tremendous functionality and even performance growth since GHz scaling stalled a decade ago, we will continue to see functional and performance growth for a long time even if feature size stalls. The ingenuity and competition will simply shift into other dimensions.

krisi
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
krisi   10/11/2012 4:22:42 PM
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thank you @rf_austin...can you mention where that paper can be found?...or email me? kris.iniewski@gmail.com

rf_austin
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
rf_austin   10/11/2012 4:19:10 PM
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There is a economics paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research by Robert J. Gordon titled "Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds". This paper describes how Moore's Law fueled the third of three "industrial revolutions" and now that it is coming to a close, will result in a completely different worlds from an economic perspective. Interesting reading. I don't agree with all of his conclusions, but I do think he has captured what we've all been seeing in the electronics industry for the past five years.

photoneer
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
photoneer   10/11/2012 3:41:53 PM
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EUV saturated so much of the total R&D spectrum that little bandwidth was left for alternative approaches. The decision to stick with EUV defies logic, especially in an industry that is so careful about managing risks. The fact that EUV sources are still at this late date 10 to 20 times too weak for HVM should indicate that the technology is not tractable. Furthermore, if a true 200 watt source was available for long term testing, the exposure tool would certainly have to undergo major changes to accommodate the thermal loading.

chipmonk0
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
chipmonk0   10/11/2012 2:42:43 PM
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Precisely the type of dodgy thinking that led to the demise of British manufacturing industry since the '60s and their living off W. Europe and the US as low-cost English speakers, middle-men and parasites who lie to start wars.

krisi
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
krisi   10/11/2012 2:41:37 AM
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OK, let's kill the Moore's law and start discussing possible alternatives going forward...clearly in original formulation it will not hold anymore...although it worked fine for over 50 years!

PV-Geek
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
PV-Geek   10/11/2012 1:31:50 AM
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This does sound like smoke and mirrors, but Moore's law doesn't account for getting the same number of "better" things. For instance, if you get the same number of transistors as the last node but they use 50% less power, how do you measure that in terms of Moore's law? If you stack two chips on top of each other to get twice and many transistors in the same "space" does that count?

any1
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re: London Calling: How to save Moore's Law
any1   10/11/2012 1:03:25 AM
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To acknowledge the end of Moore's law is to acknowledge what most of the semi industry has known for the past decade - the business model made possible by scaling is now obsolete. More than Moore will be upon us all. Peter mentions low power since mobile is now king, but what if you aren't in the mobile market? I think there is room for many different kinds of innovation.

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