I have a sneaking suspicion that the VC selection process is more like a high school election/popularity contest than a disciplined process. It's been a few years since I've been in a VC meeting, but I doubt much has changed. There are a few genuinely thoughtful VC, but there also seem to be a lot that make funding decisions that really don't make much sense.
The thing i, though, that I don't think they'd have much better results if it really were about the numbers and probability of success. Once beyond a base level of competence, the type of person that can sell something, whether it be of value or not, to a consumer is likely to be able to sell that same thing to a VC.
Replay available now: A handful of emerging network technologies are competing to be the preferred wide-area connection for the Internet of Things. All claim lower costs and power use than cellular but none have wide deployment yet. Listen in as proponents of leading contenders make their case to be the metro or national IoT network of the future. Rick Merritt, EE Times Silicon Valley Bureau Chief, moderators this discussion. Join in and ask his guests questions.