I would point that a sequential fall of about 1.0 percent for Q4 in comparison is normal for the semiconductor industry.
I make the average of Q4/Q3 fall over the last 10 years 1.4 percent, according to WSTS data, so a sequential fall of only 0.7 percent in better than average.
Hi Peter - the latest Cowan LRA Model's expectation for 4Q/3Q sequential sales growth (as calculated from the WSTS's recently posted October actual sales of $24.873 billion) is minus 1.6 percent which is slightly more negative than your calculated last 10-year historical average of minus 1.4 percent.
Peter - WHOOPs. The 4Q/3Q sequential sales should be PLUS 1.6 percent, that is, a sequential INCREASE, NOT minus as stated above.
Therefore, the latest Cowan LRA Model run for 4Q/3Q's sequential sales growth forecast estimate is, in fact, more "bullish" than iSuppli's prediction of plus 0.7 percent sequential sales growth and slightly more positive than your stated last 10-year average of 1.4 percent. Sorry. Mike C.
Hi Brian - the latest run of the Cowan LRA forecasting model incorporating the WSTS's October actual sales number of $24.873 billion yielded an updated 2012 sales growth expectation of minus 2.3 percent which is in excellent agreement with IHS-iSuppli's latest 2012 yr-o-yr sales growth update of minus 2.3 percent. The model's 2012 sales forecast estimate came in at $292.758 billion compared to the WSTS's 2011 reported sales of $299.521 billion. Remember that IHS-iSuppli's global semiconductor sales tracking process is different than the WSTS's and this accounts for their higher prediction for 2012 of $310 billion. Also note that the latest WSTS sales and sales growth forecast expectations (per the WSTS's recently published 2012 Autumn forecast update) are $289.936 billion and minus 3.2 percent, respectively.
In this single Intel notebook example across three process nodes.
iCore 7/5/3 total quad & duals production:
Arrandale 188,630,122 units
Sandy Bridge 156,025,668 units
Ivy Bridge 138,566,718 units
As we unveil EE Times’ 2015 Silicon 60 list, journalist & Silicon 60 researcher Peter Clarke hosts a conversation on startups in the electronics industry. Panelists Dan Armbrust (investment firm Silicon Catalyst), Andrew Kau (venture capital firm Walden International), and Stan Boland (successful serial entrepreneur, former CEO of Neul, Icera) join in the live debate.