Design Con 2015
Breaking News
Comments
Oldest First | Newest First | Threaded View
Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
Cowan LRA Model   1/3/2013 2:02:05 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Peter - the latest run of the Cowan LRA forecasting model is more BEARISH on 2012's predicted sales growth outcome than IDC's prediction and, correspondingly, more BULLISH on what the model sees for 2013's sales growth expectations. In particular, the model is projecting a 2.3 percent DECLINE in global semiconductor sales for 2012 compared to 2011's actual sales (per the WSTS) of $299.52 billion. For 2013 the model's sales growth forecast estimate is expected to register an INCREASE of 6.4 percent over 2012's projected sales forecast estimate of $292.76 billion. Both years' sales growth predictions put forth by the model are gleamed from its “operating on” the WSTS's HBR (Historical Billings Report) sales numbers through October 2012 which were posted by the WSTS at the beginning of December. Final year-end sales numbers for 2012 as gathered and tracked by the WSTS will be published on their website at the beginning of February 2013. Therefore, stay tuned for the "wrap up" of 2012 sales results as well as updated Cowan LRA Model forecasts for 2013's outlook each month as the New Year "plays out." Happy New Year to ALL. Mike Cowan (independent market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales)

krisi
User Rank
CEO
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
krisi   1/3/2013 8:35:04 PM
NO RATINGS
How accurate are these predictions anyway? Has anyone look at the past track record of those who predict those numbers? Kris

geekmaster
User Rank
Manager
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
geekmaster   1/3/2013 11:48:57 PM
NO RATINGS
I think both follow general trend for 2012 and 2013. IDC is more on the upper side than consenus of -2 to -3% for 2012. Consensus for 2013 is about +5 to +6%.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
Cowan LRA Model   1/4/2013 1:42:06 AM
NO RATINGS
Kris - check out the graphic put together by Jim Handy at the following URL = http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhandy/2012/12/28/a-review-of-semiconductor-forecasts/. Come the first week in February the final (actual) 2012 sales number will be published by the WSTS and you can check out yourself how the various prognosticators portrayed in the above invoked graphic "faired" relative to the accuracy of their respective predictions throughout 2012. Mike Cowan

daleste
User Rank
CEO
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
daleste   1/4/2013 4:02:23 AM
NO RATINGS
5% growth this year would be great. Hope it continues for a few years.

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
Peter Clarke   1/4/2013 11:49:31 AM
NO RATINGS
Nice spot Mike Of course, the article serves Objective Analysis well. Why else would Jim Handy contribute it? But it does show how analysts struggle with the complex, chaotic nature of forecasting markets.

Bruce Leister
User Rank
Rookie
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
Bruce Leister   1/4/2013 9:10:27 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Peter: I agree with you, predicting the future of the semi industry is complex and chaotic. The graph showing the retreat of the forecasters from rosy 2012 predictions is stunning. However, if you looked at the North American Semi Equip Book to Bill and global semi sales in May of 2012 it was obvious we were pointed in the wrong direction, yet there was a lag before the models responded. I know these are old school benchmarks and everyone is trying to anticipate the turning points. I am curious what general trend Objective Analysis uses to "be right".

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: Semi upswing seen for 2013
Cowan LRA Model   1/5/2013 2:00:06 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Bruce (and Peter) - contrary to your belief on the difficulty in making sense of the various sales growth expectations I "put out," I feel that the model I have developed is, in fact, straight forward and provides each month a good proxy of what the sales growth might be each month as the year plays out. I should point out that Linear Regression Analysis that the model employs operating on historical monthly sales history of the industry tracked and published by the WSTS going back over the past 28 years is pretty rigorous on a relative basis. Since the model is purely mathematical no assumptions and/or emotion are invoked in arriving at the forecast results. Bruce - for more details on the "workings" of the forecasting approach please provide me your e-mail address (@ mikedcowan(at)verizon(dot)net and I will send you my monthly report with all the details re. the model's approach and latest results. Mike Cowan



Top Comments of the Week
Flash Poll
Like Us on Facebook

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
<b><a href=Betajet">

The Circle – The Future's Imperfect in the Present Tense
Betajet
5 comments
The Circle, a satirical, dystopian novel published in 2013 by San Francisco-based writer Dave Eggers, is about a large, very powerful technology company that combines aspects of Google, ...

Max Maxfield

Recommended Reads From the Engineer's Bookshelf
Max Maxfield
23 comments
I'm not sure if I read more than most folks or not, but I do I know that I spend quite a lot of time reading. I hate to be idle, so I always have a book or two somewhere about my person -- ...

Martin Rowe

Make This Engineering Museum a Reality
Martin Rowe
Post a comment
Vincent Valentine is a man on a mission. He wants to make the first house to ever have a telephone into a telephone museum. Without help, it may not happen.

Rich Quinnell

Making the Grade in Industrial Design
Rich Quinnell
16 comments
As every developer knows, there are the paper specifications for a product design, and then there are the real requirements. The paper specs are dry, bland, and rigidly numeric, making ...

Special Video Section
The LT8640 is a 42V, 5A synchronous step-down regulator ...
The LTC2000 high-speed DAC has low noise and excellent ...
How do you protect the load and ensure output continues to ...
General-purpose DACs have applications in instrumentation, ...
Linear Technology demonstrates its latest measurement ...
10:29
Demos from Maxim Integrated at Electronica 2014 show ...
Bosch CEO Stefan Finkbeiner shows off latest combo and ...
STMicroelectronics demoed this simple gesture control ...
Keysight shows you what signals lurk in real-time at 510MHz ...
TE Connectivity's clear-plastic, full-size model car shows ...
Why culture makes Linear Tech a winner.
Recently formed Architects of Modern Power consortium ...
Specially modified Corvette C7 Stingray responds to ex Indy ...
Avago’s ACPL-K30T is the first solid-state driver qualified ...
NXP launches its line of multi-gate, multifunction, ...
Doug Bailey, VP of marketing at Power Integrations, gives a ...
See how to ease software bring-up with DesignWare IP ...
DesignWare IP Prototyping Kits enable fast software ...
This video explores the LT3086, a new member of our LDO+ ...
In today’s modern electronic systems, the need for power ...