"To ensure that the industry’s momentum continues, Congress should remove ongoing economic uncertainty by enacting long-term, reliable fiscal policies that boost America’s economic strength and global
I take it SIA president Brian Toohey has a new outlook based on the actual outcome of the so-called fiscal cliff "deal". Instead of what he wanted we got more taxes and a total punt on debt.
I really wanted to find the news below which seems a contradictory indicator:
So, with this information in mind, from the two articles, can we not conclude that the increased sales after Q3 (pre holiday season) in Q4 is a sign of stockpilling? They (the OEMs) read the news, they know the semi test equipment sales is at low so it means the semiconductor manufacturers are depressing their production (situation encountered few years ago) so OEMs did what any of us would do, run to reload their stock of parts. Not that they would see growing economic activity, but simply to refuel the inventory levels which are anyway kept at decreasing quantities.
All the figures given by SIA are three-month average figures.
The first set compares the three-month moving average (3MMA) for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Oct. 2012.
The second set compares 3MMA for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Nov. 2011.
The third set compares 3MMA for Nov. 2012 with 3MMA for Aug. 2011.
SIA does not distribute actual sales numbers because they are prone to peaks and troughs. The WSTS does publish actual numbers.
If I take this data and convert it to actual sales and compare months it looks like October and November are showing 7.2% and 8.3% growth versus the same months last year. That is great news especially when considering the previous 5 months all showed negative "growth".
Not sure I understand what the difference is between month-to-month, year-to-year and three-month-moving average in your chart, particularly when the November number are identical for all three.
Not sure which bits you think are great news....there are a few things going on here.
Bear in mind that increased market value can come about from either increased unit sales or increased average selling prices, or a combination of the two.
So a growing market could imply that component buyers might be being asked to pay more for their chips...which, for component buyers, is bad news.