Breaking News
Comments
Oldest First | Newest First | Threaded View
Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
re: Chip market ready for steady rebound
Cowan LRA Model   1/30/2013 6:16:38 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Peter – the latest run of the Cowan LRA foreasting model, which is based on the WSTS’s November HBR sales numbers published on Jan 7th, 2013, yielded the following sales and yr-o-yr sales growth numbers for 2012 and 2013: $292.992 billion (-2.2 percent) and $309.244 billion (+5.5 percent), respectively. Therefore, the Cowan LRA Model’s sales growth expectation for 2013 is 1.6 percentage points lower than Databean's forecast of plus 7.1 percent. Note that 2012's sales and sales growth numbers between our two forecast expectations are in excellent agreement Note that the WSTS will publish the final (actual) global semiconductor sales result for 2012 at the end of the first week in February. Therefore, stay tuned for my latest 2013's forecast numbers following the posting of the December HBR (Historical Billings Report). Regards, Mike Cowan (Independent semi industry market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales).

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: Chip market ready for steady rebound
Peter Clarke   1/30/2013 6:36:20 PM
NO RATINGS
Thanks Mike, Your comments are always welcome. Looking to do a small bit of number crunching myself once the WSTS numbers are out.

krisi
User Rank
CEO
re: Chip market ready for steady rebound
krisi   2/4/2013 6:18:58 PM
NO RATINGS
How accurate are such predictions historically?

sranje
User Rank
Manager
re: Chip market ready for steady rebound
sranje   2/4/2013 7:14:03 PM
NO RATINGS
Iniewski - perhaps a good approach is to look at the track record of different forecasters and their postmortem analysis of difference with actual. For 2012 there was near consensus in January about 7% growth - we ended at 0% I would give a high mark to IC Insights forecasts. They are strongly based on detailed analyses of economic drivers and what I like they do are their postmortem analyses. Explaining what exactly has changed where and how much it contributed to discrepancy. I find this a high quality and integrity approach. Re Databeans - they are certainly well respected researchers, eg., in Analog. What I find somewhat lacking are their definitions of what makes any vendor primarily an Analog IC vendor - hence their Analog vendor ranking is somewhat misleading/confusing. But - that is one person opinion



EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Max Maxfield

Steve Wozniak Reacts to Latest iPhone
Max Maxfield
5 comments
Funnily enough, just a few days ago as I pen these words, I was chatting with my wife (Gina the Gorgeous) when she informed me that -- as a kid -- she had never played at making a ...

EDN Staff

11 Summer Vacation Spots for Engineers
EDN Staff
20 comments
This collection of places from technology history, museums, and modern marvels is a roadmap for an engineering adventure that will take you around the world. Here are just a few spots ...

Glen Chenier

Engineers Solve Analog/Digital Problem, Invent Creative Expletives
Glen Chenier
15 comments
- An analog engineer and a digital engineer join forces, use their respective skills, and pull a few bunnies out of a hat to troubleshoot a system with which they are completely ...

Larry Desjardin

Engineers Should Study Finance: 5 Reasons Why
Larry Desjardin
46 comments
I'm a big proponent of engineers learning financial basics. Why? Because engineers are making decisions all the time, in multiple ways. Having a good financial understanding guides these ...

Flash Poll
Top Comments of the Week
Like Us on Facebook
EE Times on Twitter
EE Times Twitter Feed

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)