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Some Guy
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
Some Guy   3/8/2013 9:56:52 PM
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Two criticisms: 1) Wright's law is worthless as a prediction; it is parametric in units. You need the prediction in time. So I have to have an Oracle predictor of units over time, and if I have that, who needs Wright? Not surprised it came out best in "hindcasting". 2) With Moore's Law, don't confuse cause and effect. Moore's Law is not an immutable cause. It was the target to which the semiconductor industry managed itself to, thus, get the doubling effect.

pmartel
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
pmartel   3/8/2013 9:25:47 PM
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but he had a proof... It was just too large to fit in the margin...

mhrackin
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
mhrackin   3/8/2013 9:11:06 PM
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and, of course, once you mention "observing .... at work..." that brings to mind Parkinson's Law!

mhrackin
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
mhrackin   3/8/2013 9:09:42 PM
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I've been watching this thread, wondering how long it would take for someone to bring up Mr. Murphy's immutable law!

TarraTarra!
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
TarraTarra!   3/8/2013 8:39:31 PM
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Talking about laws - Murphy's law trumps any other law. I can personally attest to observing Murphy's law at work.

Duane Benson
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
Duane Benson   3/8/2013 7:49:54 PM
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And I won't say "Duane's Law", but rather "Duane's observation of the completely obvious." :-)

KRS03
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
KRS03   3/8/2013 7:04:10 PM
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OK, all agreed I see... So it's "Wright's predictor of long-term economic growth". WPLTEG. Say that ten times.

dbsavant
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
dbsavant   3/8/2013 5:56:00 PM
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Some marketing guy with an eye towards a political run applied the term "law" to these "observations". Let's hope he doesn't get elected!

georgegrimes
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
georgegrimes   3/8/2013 5:17:25 PM
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Sigh, I can't type today. That should be "pointing out", not "point out". Is it Saturday yet? I need a weekend!

georgegrimes
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re: Moore's Law trumped by Wright's Law
georgegrimes   3/8/2013 5:15:59 PM
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This discussion would not be complete without someone point out that Moore never claimed that it was a "law". Everything that I've read from him called it his "observation". That was his preference.

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As data rates begin to move beyond 25 Gbps channels, new problems arise. Getting to 50 Gbps channels might not be possible with the traditional NRZ (2-level) signaling. PAM4 lets data rates double with only a small increase in channel bandwidth by sending two bits per symbol. But, it brings new measurement and analysis problems. Signal integrity sage Ransom Stephens will explain how PAM4 differs from NRZ and what to expect in design, measurement, and signal analysis.

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