I have seen a few presentations on quantum computing. In theory, this could replace CMOS and bring a whole new revolution to computing. Or it could be a big fat nothing like high temp superconductors and magnetic memory. It will probably be ten years before they know which one it will be.
If you look at the design rule specifications Taiwan Semiconductor is releasing and estimated 20 and 16 wafer prices, the Moore's law slow down is in full steam.
Progress will still happen. Just not by moving to designs to 20 and 16.
What is interesting Broadcom CEO must have similar numbers I have seen so this is not some academic. It is real data on Moore's law.
Intel also has a cost problem. They just don't know it since they sell 100 to 1000 CPUs. Intel has never successfully competed in its 50 year history on cost in a commodity market and is in for a rude awaking in mobile
Agree with Henry. all these times academics who said it is over, now the real people who are doing the job.
Still has 10 years. Do not underestimate our younger generation..they are smarter than us and they will come up with something, perhaps not simple CMOS..
Slow down your drinking check your designated driver (hope he/she is sobber) and cheers/salute for CMOS for all the years of work horse (at least kept me going on my entire carrier).
A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog for the All-Programmable-Planet --APP-- community in which one of the main issues was how Moore's law has started running out of gas in the last years.
It includes some graphics that illustrate that a speed limit has already been reached by analyzing Intel's CPU performance evolution along the time.
If someone is interested, follow the next link:
The cost of chip fabrication is rising as we speak with double patterning litho required below 20nm.
As for demand, may I remind you of Google Project Glass and other worn computing initiatives coming on as well as the trend to IoT/M2M.
Everything is getting sensed, instrumented, stored and analyzed. This will drive a new level of compute, storage, networking and bandwidth needs over the next 10-15 years as our current CMOS technology sputters.
I don't think scaling will suddenly hit a wall, I think it will be a long slow deceleration that has already started. Intel's 14nm FinFet is a very complicated, expensive process, which seems to deliver density but no added performance and no improvement in leakage. It uses a lot of brute force techniques like double patterning. So what are the consequences of a halt in Moore's law? The article discussed 3-d stacking, and optical chip connections. Does that mean the profits of Intel and TSMC will stagnate? That software developers will shoulder the load for performance improvement?