Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
Page 1 / 2   >   >>
przemek
User Rank
Rookie
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
przemek   6/3/2013 9:35:47 PM
NO RATINGS
I view Moore's law as a business phenomenon as much as a technology phenomenon. It basically said that at a certain sustainable capital and R&D investment rate, the industry kept doubling the transistor budget every 18 months. Unfortunately, lately the equipment got so exotic and expensive that the capital investment required to stay on the Moore's curve is not justifiable--except perhaps to the largest players with deepest pockets.

resistion
User Rank
CEO
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
resistion   6/1/2013 3:04:35 AM
NO RATINGS
Yes, in a way Moore's Law was for Intel. For NAND, there is/was Hwang's Law, which may also have failed now.

help.fulguy
User Rank
Manager
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
help.fulguy   5/31/2013 10:18:10 PM
NO RATINGS
Peter, You are missing the point. Intel is leading all the way. Everybody is failing. Moores Law is still true for Intel. Rest are losers.

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Peter Clarke   5/31/2013 8:46:33 PM
NO RATINGS
@Yog-Sothth As well as being an observation there was a forward-looking element to Moore's comments, which were based not so much on the laws of physics but on the nature of economics. To quote from the 1965 Electronics article: "Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years." In the article Moore went on to speculate how many transistors it would be economic to integrate monolithically in 1975, which at that time was ten years' hence. So you are right, Moore did not say scaling would continue into atomic dimensions, but what he stated was more than just an observation on historical levels of integration.

Yog-Sothoth
User Rank
Freelancer
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Yog-Sothoth   5/31/2013 6:52:17 PM
NO RATINGS
"Well it was a prophecy when made by Gordon Moore in 1965." You mean an observation, not a prophecy. His was not a law, it had no rigorous physics behind it, it was just that at that time scaling seemed quite possible in the near future. I'm sure Moore himself would never have said scaling would continue into atomic dimensions, he was not that stupid.

Chipguy1
User Rank
CEO
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Chipguy1   5/31/2013 2:53:55 PM
NO RATINGS
Peter I think you are spot on and it's surprising mainstream press has not picked up on this For logic is it clear based on Tawain semi offering 20 and 16 does not provide historical die size shrink or a lower cost per transistor and an ending of moores law. 28 to 20 only provided a die size shink of ~35% (when buying 4 layers of metal double patterning...typical for many SOC) and 20 to 16nm has ZERO die size reduction at higher wafer cost (a non-starter for most markets)

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Peter Clarke   5/31/2013 11:58:33 AM
NO RATINGS
@bwdodso Well it was a prophecy when made by Gordon Moore in 1965. And once made I feel it set a level of expectation that the industry has tried hard to meet. Company such as Intel, forward plan based on the expectation of a two year cycle. This and similar planning at other companies in turn set the agenda for the semiconductor equipment companies, which in turn affected what technologies become available when. The general effect was, for the industry players' mutual convenience, the tie the industry in to a roughly two-year cycle. It was also reflected in such things as the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) and the predictions made therein. That is why i believe the prophecy has been largely self-fulfilling ...up until now....

bwdodso
User Rank
Rookie
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
bwdodso   5/30/2013 8:28:30 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi, Peter, Why in the world would you call Moore's Law a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is neither, rather being a historical trend on how fast people manage to build new technologies that has had surprisingly significant predictive power. The first time that physics and fabrication technology come into it is (perhaps) when people can't keep up the rate of innovation.

Jiahui
User Rank
Rookie
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Jiahui   5/30/2013 5:05:01 PM
NO RATINGS
"Instead SanDisk found a way to improve the memory cell through design — reducing the area by about 25 percent – and without the scaling the geometry." That is a wrong statement because the memory-cell bitline pitch scales down from 26nm to 19.5nm while the wordline pitch remains at 19nm (see press release: http://www.sandisk.com/about-sandisk/press-room/press-releases/2013/sandisk-advances-its-industry-leading-manufacturing-technology/ ). So the core cell size reduction is 25%, and the total chip size reduction is about 20% when periphery is included for a 64Gb 2-bit-per-cell chip. I'm not arguing how long Moore's Law will hold in the future. 1Y could be considered as half a node from 1X. Considering 1x just came out last year, the scaling trend is still pretty impressive. You can also consider 2X to 1Y as a full generation node, and that took less than three years for SanDisk/Toshiba to develop.

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
re: London Calling: Moore's Law fail at NAND flash node
Peter Clarke   5/29/2013 4:22:45 PM
NO RATINGS
@Wobbly Well the general consensus I have heard from the likes of IMEC, SanDisk, Intel is that 3-D NAND replaces 2-D NAND and scales the technology in the vertical direction. Not so much a 1M-nm generation as a 4M-nm generation... And when you hit a limit in the z direction due to the ability to coat the depth of the high aspect ratio through-silicon-wire holes you return to lateral scaling with ReRAM...And by then a more complete understanding of the physics of this resisitve systems may have been achieved.

Page 1 / 2   >   >>


Most Recent Comments
Kevin Krewell
 
daleste
 
Ian Johns
 
Etmax
 
daleste
 
alex_m1
 
Ian Johns
 
David Ashton
 
MeasurementBlues
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Max Maxfield

Oh, No! My Antique Analog Meter Has Twitched Its Last
Max Maxfield
20 comments
Well, life is certainly full of ups and downs, isn't it? When it comes to the antique analog meters I'm using in a number of my hobby projects, things appeared to be going swimmingly well, ...

EDN Staff

11 Summer Vacation Spots for Engineers
EDN Staff
20 comments
This collection of places from technology history, museums, and modern marvels is a roadmap for an engineering adventure that will take you around the world. Here are just a few spots ...

Glen Chenier

Engineers Solve Analog/Digital Problem, Invent Creative Expletives
Glen Chenier
15 comments
- An analog engineer and a digital engineer join forces, use their respective skills, and pull a few bunnies out of a hat to troubleshoot a system with which they are completely ...

Larry Desjardin

Engineers Should Study Finance: 5 Reasons Why
Larry Desjardin
46 comments
I'm a big proponent of engineers learning financial basics. Why? Because engineers are making decisions all the time, in multiple ways. Having a good financial understanding guides these ...

Flash Poll
Top Comments of the Week
Like Us on Facebook
EE Times on Twitter
EE Times Twitter Feed

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)