The SIA backs the WSTS Spring market forecast but it doesn't say why it is necessary to pull market forecasts down.
Previous indications have been that memory could be about to go into short supply which could drive ASPs up. Similarly leading-edge logic.
Could WSTS/SIA be underestimating 2013 and 2014?
Hi Peter - to answer your question I believe the latest WSTS/SIA 2013 sales growth forecast expectation of 2.1 percent is probably a good "ball park" number for 2013's sales growth. First of all looking at the year-to-date cumulative sales growth monthly trend from Jan to Apr as a barometer of the year-over-year growth trend shows the following percentages: 7.7%, 1.9%, 0.86%, and 0.34% indicating a relatively strong downward trend in the YTD sales growth for 2013 so far. Secondly, the latest Cowan LRA Model's 2013 sales growth forecast thinking based upon April's actual sales ($23.551 billion) is 3.0% which is slightly more bullish than the just released WSTS forecast estimate of 2.1%. Additionally, the model is projecting May's actual sales forecast to be $23.101 billion which would bring the May 2013 YTD sales growth estimate to 0.40% which indicates a turning point (albeit rather small) in the YTD sales growth trend - that is, April, most likely, is the low point and May the upward turning point in YTD sales growth trending to the overall year-end's sales growth expectation of between 2 to 3 percent. Therefore, stay tuned to the following monthly Cowan LRA Model's forecast estimate thinking in order to monitor the trend month by month.
Mike C. (independent market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model)
GoGoGeek - the Cowan LRA model for forecasting global semiconductor sales relies on 29 years of historical actual monthly sales numbers - not just 1Q's worth of sales results. Based upon previous comments you have made you seemed to be "hung-up" in thinking that only 1Q numbers are employed. For specific information on the LRA model workings I suggest you carefully read the article posted at the following URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AJETE-latest-cowan-lra-model-s-forecast-nos-based-on-february-s-global-semi-sales-published-by-the-wsts.
I hope that after reading the back-end of the invoked article you have a better appreciation of how the mathematically-based model operates.
It is the brutal pricing in the mobile market that is holding back revenue.
Smartphone and table sales volume (and hence chip units) is up significantly but chip prices are down 15% year of year in the markets i buy.