Junko - Very informative, thanks. A few observations:
- Not to take anything away from them, but I wonder how long the China-based semiconductor companies such as Rockchip, Allwinner...etc will last. I wish them well, but they seem like one-trick pony, shanzai semiconductor companies, here now with a big splash, causing chaos with their price-crashing strategy, but gone tomorrow. Remember RDA? Where are they now?
- It is possible an MTK or an M-star will emerge from these, potentially threatening the likes of Qualcomm/Broadcom etc., but if SOC prices are crashing (relative to memory prices, as your #4 point says), then maybe there's more room to play in the memory space. Interesting, because the innovation cycle in memory is longer, whereas in the SOC it is shorter.
MTK has already emerged as a formidable player in the smartphone apps processor market. The question is whether the growing white box market will continue to be left alone for all the China fabless companies to take. Or will we ever see leading chip companies n the west to move in that space?
I am not so sure. They seem to be still years away before gunning for IPO. Actually, I am more concerned about how sustainable their business is. More M&As, licensing or acquisition of technologies must happen before Rockchip an Allwinner can start truly leading the market.