Hi Peter - the most recent run of the Cowan LRA forecast model operating on April 2013's actual sales result ($23.551 billion) recently published by the WSTS projects that the sequential sales growth forecast estimate of the second half of 2013 relative to the first half of 2013 will be 7.5 percent. This result corresponds to a 1H 2013 sales forecast of $144.7 billion. Details can be found at the following URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1UFQSRBA-updated-global-semiconductor-sales-and-growth-expectations-for-2013-14.
Therefore, the latest model run bears out the positive sales growth expected for 2H 2013 global semi sales, namely $155.6 billion, compared to the first half of 2013 sales expectation invoked above.
Mike Cowan (independent semiconductor market analyst / watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales)
Thanks for the update. There seem to be conflicting messages out there at there at the moment.
Signs look positive for memory ASPs which could make a big difference to global sales. But a number of market watchers are predicting a flat 2013 on global economic slowness.
In fact adding your 1H and 2H predictions puts you a bit in that camp at about $300 billion 2013 annual sales.
Maybe in 2013 the market will beat expectations for the first time in a number of years?
Thanks Peter for your "thanks." Obviously, stay "tuned" for the monthly updates of the model's "thinking" on 2013 sales and sales growth expectations as the year plays out. Moreover, the model predicts that 2014 sales and sales growth forecast estimates will be $317.9 billion and 5.8 percent, respectively. Therefore, it looks like 2014 will be a much more improved recovery year for the semiconductor industry.