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Cowan LRA Model
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re: Chip inventory moves point to second-half growth
Cowan LRA Model   6/21/2013 8:59:08 PM
Hi Peter - the most recent run of the Cowan LRA forecast model operating on April 2013's actual sales result ($23.551 billion) recently published by the WSTS projects that the sequential sales growth forecast estimate of the second half of 2013 relative to the first half of 2013 will be 7.5 percent. This result corresponds to a 1H 2013 sales forecast of $144.7 billion. Details can be found at the following URL = Therefore, the latest model run bears out the positive sales growth expected for 2H 2013 global semi sales, namely $155.6 billion, compared to the first half of 2013 sales expectation invoked above. Mike Cowan (independent semiconductor market analyst / watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales)

Peter Clarke
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re: Chip inventory moves point to second-half growth
Peter Clarke   6/24/2013 11:19:33 AM
Hi Mike, Thanks for the update. There seem to be conflicting messages out there at there at the moment. Signs look positive for memory ASPs which could make a big difference to global sales. But a number of market watchers are predicting a flat 2013 on global economic slowness. In fact adding your 1H and 2H predictions puts you a bit in that camp at about $300 billion 2013 annual sales. Maybe in 2013 the market will beat expectations for the first time in a number of years?

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Chip inventory moves point to second-half growth
Cowan LRA Model   6/24/2013 3:30:20 PM
Thanks Peter for your "thanks." Obviously, stay "tuned" for the monthly updates of the model's "thinking" on 2013 sales and sales growth expectations as the year plays out. Moreover, the model predicts that 2014 sales and sales growth forecast estimates will be $317.9 billion and 5.8 percent, respectively. Therefore, it looks like 2014 will be a much more improved recovery year for the semiconductor industry. Mike C. Parts Search

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michigan0 Sang Kim First, 28nm bulk is in volume manufacturing for several years by the major semiconductor companies but not 28nm FDSOI today yet. Why not? Simply because unlike 28nm bulk the LDD(Lightly Doped Drain) to minimize hot carrier generation can't be implemented in 28nm FDSOI. Furthermore, hot carrier reliability becomes worse with scaling, That is the major reason why 28nm FDSOI is not manufacturable today and will not be. Second, how can you suppress the leakage currents from such ultra short 7nm due to the short channel effects? How thin SOI thickness is required to prevent punch-through of un-dopped 7nm FDSOI? Possibly less than 4nm. Depositing such an ultra thin film less then 4nm filum uniformly and reliably over 12" wafers at the manufacturing line is extremely difficult or not even manufacturable. If not manufacturable, the 7nm FDSOI debate is over!Third, what happens when hot carriers are generated near the drain at normal operation of 7nm FDSOI? Electrons go to the positively biased drain with no harm but where the holes to go? The holes can't go to the substrate because of the thin BOX layer. Some holes may become trapped at the BOX layer causing Vt shift. However, the vast majority of holes drift through the the un-dopped SOI channel toward the N+Source,...
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