According to The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) the great recession ended in June 2009. I choose to believe this rather than looking at the number of people that are still out of work, although it is really hard to avoid looking at that. An upward moving stock market is is good too and may add some confidence to this economy if it continues. Let's just hope it does.
1 Sales increase, the stock market going higher on light volume is nothing.
2 Production increase, not an increase in profits from cutting 50,000 employees
3 Employment, A slow down in unemployment is not an employment increase.
I agree it may be sign of recovery but based on financial crisis we went through, there is nothing that have been done to fundamentally correct it.
I am also expecting that this earning quarter some of the stocks will yield high gain, but doesn't really indicate improved economy.
I wouldn't believe the stock ticker. Price is driven by volume buys, these are done by computer at the brokerage houses with all their various analysts. The programs are designed to trade, i.e., buy at some low point, sell at some higher point. The selling may precede the buying. No sitting and waiting. Money made in short-term increments not long-term accumulation (like bank interest). And money is rotated through stock sectors as well. In short term, stock price is driven by media-assisted psychology and hype.
If you want a real economy measure, you need to check unemployment rate, GDP, revenues, etc. Things which actually reflect economic productivity.
Recently Stocks, especially tech stocks, has raised from dirt and going into positive direction with brigther outlook. means consumer market has started to ramp up again. Wondering if this is the time to say we are back on the track, leaving behind economy worries and job market. Any thoughts?
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