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krisi
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right timing?
krisi   7/2/2013 6:48:43 PM
Building the fab at the time that Flash chips experience some shortage seem to be short sighted. By the time the fab is build you will likely be in excessive inventory situation again. Does anyone care to comment? Kris

elctrnx_lyf
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Re: right timing?
elctrnx_lyf   7/3/2013 1:03:14 AM
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The nand flash demand will only going to increase every year because pf the huge rise in the consumer electronics products. So i do not think this is any short sighted plan from Toshiba.

resistion
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Re: right timing?
resistion   7/3/2013 1:17:23 AM
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Yet there were reports of oversupply from Toshiba/Sandisk, very confusing.

Peter Clarke
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Re: right timing?
Peter Clarke   7/3/2013 5:36:30 AM
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@krisi

 

There is an argument that you build the fab shell during a component undersupply situation, put the equipment in during the oversupply phase so that it comes online during the next undersupply time.

But of course cycles are never quite as predictable as that so you can end up with capital tied up in the shell unnecessarily.

The alternative of trying to build a fab in a hurry usually ends up in an 18 month to 2 year latency that probably does serve to amplify boom-bust cycles.

So in the end you just make the best decision you can in any given set of circumstances. And NAND flash does seem set to be a growing market for the foreseeable future.

 

resistion
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Not strong commitment
resistion   7/2/2013 11:06:20 PM
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It looks very tentative, waiting for market conditions.

resistion
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3D and NAND, but not together
resistion   7/3/2013 1:20:58 AM
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Better check the statement wording again. "3D" and "NAND" not put together: "NAND flash memories fabricated with next generation process technology and for future 3D memories"

It could be 3D RRAM.

resistion
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3D and NAND, but not together
resistion   7/3/2013 1:21:00 AM
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Better check the statement wording again. "3D" and "NAND" not put together: "NAND flash memories fabricated with next generation process technology and for future 3D memories"

It could be 3D RRAM.

Peter Clarke
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Re: 3D and NAND, but not together
Peter Clarke   7/3/2013 5:30:51 AM
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@resistion


I agree that Fab 5 Phase 2 could make, at some point 3D ReRAM components.


I believe that Toshiba referenced 3D memories to cover both 3D NAND and 3D ReRAM. The conventional wisdom, coming from the likes of Toshiba-SanDisk, IMEC, Intel-Micron is that 3D-NAND will precede 3D-ReRAM.

 

But if you think it will be otherwise please tell.

resistion
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Re: 3D and NAND, but not together
resistion   7/3/2013 7:54:44 AM
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I think 3D NAND is less unattractive than sub-20 nm planar 2D NAND. 3D NAND does not necessarily entail 3D ReRAM. I.e., it is not exactly a plug and play situation.

Peter Clarke
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Re: 3D and NAND, but not together
Peter Clarke   7/3/2013 1:17:33 PM
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And just to say that SanDisk , in their statement, explicitly mentions that Fab 5 Phase 2 is intended for the manufacture of 3D NAND flash.

franzChen
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Re: 3D and NAND, but not together
franzChen   7/3/2013 2:52:29 PM
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3D NAND will happen, before 3D ReRAM happens. Though either 3 generations, or more than / less than that, still remains a question mark.

goafrit
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Re: 3D and NAND, but not together
goafrit   7/4/2013 7:02:52 PM
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I had since thought that NAND is a dying business for others withthe position of Samsung. Will be good to see Toshiba succeed to avoid any potential monopoly in this business.

Kinnar
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Right re-entry in the Flash Battle
Kinnar   7/3/2013 12:52:39 PM
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Toshiba has got the right re-entry in the Flash Battle with 3D Nand Flash, Flash Memory needs has been getting incresed day by day due to replacment of Magnetic Harddisks in PC/Portables. Even entire video industry has got shifted over Flash based media replacing the Tapes. This is really requireing high capacity Flash Drives and 3D Nand Flash is really the right answer to it.

selinz
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3d inevitable
selinz   7/3/2013 5:27:25 PM
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With so much die stacking being used in mobiles, it seems inevitable that at some point, it will be easier to "push a process node" by stacking rather than shrinking. The question is when. The question is how it will be architectured. seem like keeping pieces in testable slabs makes the most sense. Will it make sense to bring BIST engines as a separate slab or stack a separate layer to handle this...

goafrit
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Re: 3d inevitable
goafrit   7/4/2013 7:05:33 PM
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>> With so much die stacking being used in mobiles, it seems inevitable that at some point, it will be easier to "push a process node" by stacking rather than shrinking.

If you look carefully in these die stacking systems, we are not getting the best performance because the software we hope to mine their efficiencies are still sub-optimal. The main problem is not the stacking but embedded software that optimizes them.

resistion
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Less than 100% endorsement
resistion   7/3/2013 6:32:35 PM
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Since Toshiba's and Sandisk's statements still mention extension of 2D NAND in Fab 5 Phase 2, the endorsement of 3D NAND at this point still seems short of 100%.

Peter Clarke
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Re: Less than 100% endorsement
Peter Clarke   7/4/2013 5:48:47 AM
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@resistion

Well we can never be 100% sure what will happen in the future but SanDisk-Toshiba seem the furthest down the road towards 3D NAND.

Intel thinks you need more layers to make it viable and as you and others have pointed out that creates challenges in vertical etching and yield.

If there is some breakthrough in scaling 2D NVM or stacking of 2D NVM I am sure any and all could abandon 3D NAND -- but at present it is 3D NAND on the "roadmap."

 

 

any1
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NAND capacity
any1   7/5/2013 12:32:00 PM
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If Toshiba doesn't buid more NAND capacity then they will loose market share to someone else who will - probably Samsung.  It's a high stakes business and you have to be able to pull the trigger when you think the timing is right.

resistion
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Many 3D-NAND Styles
resistion   7/5/2013 6:10:37 PM
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Samsung actually proposed more options for 3D NAND Flash: TCAT, VSAT and vertical gate. I think they would win any 3D NAND war Toshiba starts.

If such a war can be run, that is. Since the 3D NAND is based on charge trapping in nitride, not floating gate, the nitride charge trapping reliability issues come to fore. The move to charge trapping has not yet preceded the move to 3D-NAND. This technology is still a high-risk technology that has not yet been qualified. Since it cannot prevent charge spreading like floating gate, there is a fundamental issue there.

Peter Clarke
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Re: Many 3D-NAND Styles
Peter Clarke   7/15/2013 3:32:07 AM
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My understanding is that nitride charge-trapping as a principle of NVM has been around for a longt time.


So when you say it is unqualified, do you mean at such small geometries?

resistion
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Re: Many 3D-NAND Styles
resistion   7/15/2013 3:43:55 AM
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No only that nitride charge trapping has not replaced floating gate. But the reliability differences are in the literature.



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