In the past the general rule has been that the "bottom-up" sector-specific analysts tend to under-call these things (perhaps reflecting pressure not to talk-down the market) while the finance-funded analysts from the brokerage houses with more of a top-down view have tend to be closer to gettings things right.
But things change.
One thing that feels slightly different this year is the memory market situation with stronger ASPs. Even if the consumer market dips in the second half I am thinking stronger memory sales based on rising ASPs could help.
Good question, Peter. I'm inclined to think that -- combined with news from other tech companies and equipment makers -- there are signs of a slowdown. The big question is how deep and how long. The smaller question is who would be immune? Which are the safest areas of the semi market, even if the broad market slows?
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