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mcgrathdylan
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Re: Next cyclical downturn
mcgrathdylan   7/30/2013 2:42:37 PM
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I agree with you Tom. IDC gave no specific reason for predicting that growth will slow considerably next year. You'd have to chalk it up to macroeconomic uncertainty. IDC clearly believes that inventories levels have come into balance with demand, setting the stage for a big second half of this year. But there is no specific reason stated for that not carrying through into next year.

mcgrathdylan
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Re: Next cyclical downturn
mcgrathdylan   7/30/2013 2:38:11 PM
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I think the semiconductor industry has to be happy with a 7% rebound, if indeed that turns out to be the case. I worry it may be too optimistic becaue it assumes some pretty healthy growth in the second half. We know the chip makers could use it badly. As for the next down, it's hard to tell. It's not like the old days with the really big volatile swings, is it?

Tom Murphy
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Re: Next cyclical downturn
Tom Murphy   7/30/2013 2:26:19 PM
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GoGoGeek: I totally agree on all scores.  If they're so optimistic about this year, why are they less enthusiastic about next year?  An economic downturn is the only think that seems to explain it to me. To answer your question, I guess they see that coming later this year -- if indeed that's the cause. 

Any other ideas out there on why chip sales would fall in half next year?

Tom Murphy
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Re: Bounce back
Tom Murphy   7/30/2013 2:23:38 PM
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Thanks for that, Wilber.  Let's work through that.

Tablets and PCs both use chips. The PC market is declining, but not as fast as the tablet market is growing. So, I'm guessing the net effect is that demand for chips is growing on that level.

Phones? They sell more each year, so chip demand should continue to rise smartly for the foreseeable future.

And let's throw in data centers.  They're growing fast and, while some servers can now handle more data than they used to, the rise of big-data is forcing the addition of many new DCs. So that market is growing faster and faster.

None of those seem to explain why IDC expects half the growth next year that is sees this year?

Aside from an economic downturn, what other factors would account for that?

wilber_xbox
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Re: Bounce back
wilber_xbox   7/30/2013 2:19:13 PM
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Tom, probably the PC market will decline faster now with tablet becoming more popular. But the reason could be the shelf life of the smartphone which will be sold this year will impact the sales in next year as not everyone will be willing to shell out money on new smartphone.

geekmaster
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Next cyclical downturn
geekmaster   7/30/2013 2:15:57 PM
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2013 is pretty much in line with other market research firms. Their 2014 projection appears somewhat lower than some others. A CAGR of 4.2% until 2017 sounds optimistic. The semiconductor industry experienced cyclical ups and downs. When can we expect the next down? 

wilber_xbox
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Re: Let's hear it for growth
wilber_xbox   7/30/2013 2:14:47 PM
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Rick, that sounds like the right estimate because the market is growing purely on smarphone business so these players will profit. Others will be in red.

Tom Murphy
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Bounce back
Tom Murphy   7/30/2013 12:45:21 PM
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After a year of decline in 2012, a 6.7 percent jump this year seems quite remarkable. What I don't understand is why IDC expects that growth to be cut in half next year. 

Do they see a significant downturn in the offing?  This can't all be due to slower growth in China, if that materializes at all.

rick merritt
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Let's hear it for growth
rick merritt   7/30/2013 11:18:18 AM
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I suspect the big Web data centers are another, likely smaller engine for growth in electronics.

It appears Qualcomm, Mediatek and maybe Marvell remain among the best positioned at least for 2013.

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