I agree with you Tom. IDC gave no specific reason for predicting that growth will slow considerably next year. You'd have to chalk it up to macroeconomic uncertainty. IDC clearly believes that inventories levels have come into balance with demand, setting the stage for a big second half of this year. But there is no specific reason stated for that not carrying through into next year.
I think the semiconductor industry has to be happy with a 7% rebound, if indeed that turns out to be the case. I worry it may be too optimistic becaue it assumes some pretty healthy growth in the second half. We know the chip makers could use it badly. As for the next down, it's hard to tell. It's not like the old days with the really big volatile swings, is it?
GoGoGeek: I totally agree on all scores. If they're so optimistic about this year, why are they less enthusiastic about next year? An economic downturn is the only think that seems to explain it to me. To answer your question, I guess they see that coming later this year -- if indeed that's the cause.
Any other ideas out there on why chip sales would fall in half next year?
Tablets and PCs both use chips. The PC market is declining, but not as fast as the tablet market is growing. So, I'm guessing the net effect is that demand for chips is growing on that level.
Phones? They sell more each year, so chip demand should continue to rise smartly for the foreseeable future.
And let's throw in data centers. They're growing fast and, while some servers can now handle more data than they used to, the rise of big-data is forcing the addition of many new DCs. So that market is growing faster and faster.
None of those seem to explain why IDC expects half the growth next year that is sees this year?
Aside from an economic downturn, what other factors would account for that?
Tom, probably the PC market will decline faster now with tablet becoming more popular. But the reason could be the shelf life of the smartphone which will be sold this year will impact the sales in next year as not everyone will be willing to shell out money on new smartphone.
2013 is pretty much in line with other market research firms. Their 2014 projection appears somewhat lower than some others. A CAGR of 4.2% until 2017 sounds optimistic. The semiconductor industry experienced cyclical ups and downs. When can we expect the next down?