Hi Dylan (again) - in your third paragraph there were two additional yr-over-yr sales contractions post 2001; namely in 2008 (-2.8 percent) and 2009 (-9.0 percent). However, it should be noted that 2001's sales contraction was quite large, namely down 32.0 percent.
@Frank- Opps. Your comment caught my attention and I realized that we left off a very important word. What she said was PC semiconductor demand would remain weak in 2013. Here is the full quote:
PC semiconductor demand will remain weak for 2013 as the market continues to be affected by the worldwide macroeconomic environment and the encroachment of tablets," said Nina Turner, Research Manager for semiconductors at IDC.
Strange, the article opens with "Global semiconductor sales are expected to increase by 6.9 percent in 2013" and closes with "Semiconductor demand will remain weak for 2013." So no matter what happens, IDC's forecast will be correct.
Hi Dylan - the latest Cowan LRA Model's global semiconductor sales growth forecasts for 2013 and 2014 came in at 4.0 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively. These results are derived from May's sales numbers as posted by WSTS in their monthly (May 2013) HBR which I shared with you back at the beginning of July. These sales growth results correspond to yearly sales forecasts of $303.2 billion and $320.6 billion for 2013 and 2014, respectively. The details behind these forecast estimates as gleamed from the model can be found at the following URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5AVTLZ-updated-global-semiconductor-sales-for-2013-and-2014-per-the-cowan-lra-forecasting-model. These two results are obviously less bullish (for 2013) and more bullish (for 2014) than IDC's sales growth forecasts of 6.9 percent and 2.9 percent.
Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecastiung global semiconductor sales.
We all know that the PC market is in declined and will likely never return to the peak levels it experienced a couple years ago. But with tablets and smartphones booming, the net impact of the PC's decline on the semiconductor industry shouldn't be very dramatic. IDC forecasts that chip revenue from the computing segment will grow 2 percent this year, but predicts that chip sales to the consumer segment (including tablets) will be up 15 percent. Not bad.
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