Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
<<   <   Page 6 / 6
rpcy1
User Rank
Rookie
Re: Is Moore's Law Dead? Does It Matter?
rpcy1   7/31/2013 11:55:12 AM
I'm the "DARPA person" in question. They pay us to be paranoid about national defense, and there really are people in the world who do not wish the United States well. (I hope that doesn't surprise anyone here.) So keep that bias in mind.

But I do think there's a real issue here, and it's the main reason I finally gave in and decided to perform some government service for the past couple of years. The issue is that for several decades, if you wanted to field military electronics, you developed it at great cost, but when it was complete, only peer nation states could afford to do likewise. Nowadays, commercial off the shelf electronics are very high performance, readily available, and inexpensive. So many more players besides peer nation states can make electronics with military implications. We still do develop electronics beyond COTS for U.S. military purposes, but there are times when using COTS is just the best we or anyone else can do.

When Moore's Law finally grinds to a halt, further advances in COTS will continue but at a far slower rate. Yes, there is low hanging fruit in SW, algorithms, 3D stacking, specialized processors, and other items I mentioned in my talk. But you cannot sustainably combine lots of onesies and replace an underlying exponential. One of the motivating ideas for my talk was that the U.S. must plan for the end of Moore's Law as though it will cause all players, not just peer nation states, to end up with the same HW capabilities. That would drastically reduce some of the advantages the U.S. has long enjoyed in certain militarily relevant arenas. -Bob Colwell

docdivakar
User Rank
Manager
Re: Is Moore's Law Dead? Does It Matter?
docdivakar   7/31/2013 11:22:22 AM
NO RATINGS
I find it hard to accept the DARPA person's opinion that US national security is threatened if Moore's law comes to an end. There is plenty more to do beyond scaling that have not received the same attention! Some one already commented about "More Than Moore" and there are quite a few challenges remaining in circuit boards and substrates.

MP Divakar

resistion
User Rank
Manager
Re: Innovation still has it's place
resistion   7/31/2013 11:13:44 AM
NO RATINGS
I guess when gate length is getting too close to gate oxide thickness, that should be a hint.

resistion
User Rank
Manager
Re: Innovation still has it's place
resistion   7/31/2013 11:09:37 AM
NO RATINGS
Sure it's not just brute scaling, but cost is also a factor. New devices, new physics, new approaches always more costly. That's why 3d packaging is still hard to get off the ground.

BrianBailey
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Innovation still has it's place
BrianBailey   7/31/2013 10:33:53 AM
NO RATINGS
One argument for it all coming to an end is that FinFETs get us from 20nm which was the end of the line for planar to 5nm before it too breaks down and there is no new switch even on the drawing board. It took FinFETs 20 years from initial stidies to first manufacture. That could mean that it will take 20 or more years to get beyond 5nm.

any1
User Rank
CEO
Innovation still has it's place
any1   7/31/2013 10:27:29 AM
NO RATINGS
Of course brute force scaling is not the only way forward.  We still have all manner of "more than Moore" ways to improve microelectronic devices.  And the end of Moores Law doesn't mean a total end to scaling, just a slowing of the rate. That next node may now take a few years instead of just 18 months.

resistion
User Rank
Manager
Moore's Law with Process Step Doubling
resistion   7/31/2013 9:47:35 AM
When the number of process steps has to double suddenly, it may no longer make economical sense to use 30% shrink to advance to the next node. It may have to be at least 35% shrink; the max of course is 50%. So 28 nm should be followed by 18 nm instead of 20 nm, for example.

<<   <   Page 6 / 6


Flash Poll
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Rishabh N. Mahajani, High School Senior and Future Engineer

Future Engineers: Don’t 'Trip Up' on Your College Road Trip
Rishabh N. Mahajani, High School Senior and Future Engineer
3 comments
A future engineer shares his impressions of a recent tour of top schools and offers advice on making the most of the time-honored tradition of the college road trip.

Max Maxfield

Juggling a Cornucopia of Projects
Max Maxfield
19 comments
I feel like I'm juggling a lot of hobby projects at the moment. The problem is that I can't juggle. Actually, that's not strictly true -- I can juggle ten fine china dinner plates, but ...

Larry Desjardin

Engineers Should Study Finance: 5 Reasons Why
Larry Desjardin
38 comments
I'm a big proponent of engineers learning financial basics. Why? Because engineers are making decisions all the time, in multiple ways. Having a good financial understanding guides these ...

Karen Field

July Cartoon Caption Contest: Let's Talk Some Trash
Karen Field
144 comments
Steve Jobs allegedly got his start by dumpster diving with the Computer Club at Homestead High in the early 1970s.

Top Comments of the Week
Like Us on Facebook
EE Times on Twitter
EE Times Twitter Feed

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)