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I thoroughly enjoyed the interaction today... had to break away for a meeting unfortunately... thanks to every one for taking part.

Manager

Good comments, everyone! I had to jump to a phone call, but I'm reading in.  Have a great weekend!

Blogger

Tons of thoughtful and insightful comments. Thanks. We're thinking about doing this again next week. See you all then.

Blogger

thanks for joining

it was fun!

Blogger

ok, this was fun! See you all next time!

Blogger

Thanks for holding it. Take care, everyone!

CEO

Larry - That's the problem. With security being an obtrsive add-on, it looks like a guilty flag. It's as if everyone who closed their house doors at night was suspected of hiding something.

Blogger

Encrypted hard drives are catching on in corporate laptops. Jacobs from Qualcomm had his stolen from the podium where he was giving a talk.

CEO

Well, this has been a great chat. We're now at the hour mark and will have to wrap it up. Thanks to everyone who participated.

 

Blogger

I mean hackers as data tinkerers and sharers.. not malicious.

Blogger

The hackers are always coming up with ways to be anonymous. The Tor project has gained a fair amount of users.

Blogger

I expect that it's a similar situation with encrypted hard drives and secure erasure. The technology is there, but it's just not really a part of anything so it's not used except in special circumstances.

Blogger

I think the first thing you'll see will be microcosms of privacy. People will have message boards with encryption and stuff. It will grow from there, but it isn't very common yet.

Blogger

Practically none of it is. The percentage is low enough that it can be a flag. Do you have something to hide?

CEO

Does anyone know what percentage of personal email is encrypted with PGP or something of the sort? That technology is there, but it's too intrusive and not well integrated. It has to be just another aspect of whatever it's used in.

Blogger

The first time that you log back into Facebook the XYZ technology would be undone. People trade their privacy for things they want.

CEO

Huawei, I am told, let's no one bring thumb drives into its HQ.

Meanwhile Congress worries Huawei hear will be used to steal its secrets.

Author

Good point, Junko. There's money to be made in selling privacy.

Blogger

The challenge is to implement privacy technology and methodologies such that it comes in slowly. Too much too soon will be looked at as something different.

Blogger

seriously, would it be a hoot if a new tech company shows up, saying that we have XYZ technology to bring your privacy back

Blogger

there's a guy with a jump drive as a finger. I'll try to find it real quick

Blogger

Privacy has already been redefined many times. Did the founding fathers anticipate TMZ?

CEO

Larry, Implant! I love that!

Blogger

i would still like to see Duane's scenario

Blogger

Thumb drives have been officially and completely banned, according to my friends still in Defense. We'll have to give her an implant.

CEO

so how will it be redefined? once it's lost, it's lost

Blogger

I can hear the Mission Impossible theme song!

Blogger

Privacy will be redefined, not returned. Anyone in the know didn't believe it when NSA denied it before anyway.

CEO

I think we'll see false personality tech being created and sold underground just like in some scifi novel

 

Blogger

wow, should you accept the mission...

Blogger

Junko, we have a new assignment for you. Go undercover with LDS and infiltrate the Utah data center. We will give you a Exabyte thumb drive to copy the files as proof.

Author

susan, you're right

big biz always wins!

Blogger

@rick, I'm not sure, but I'd love to see it. I mean the guy denied all this at the conference last year. I'm surprised they didn't tar and feather him.

 

Blogger

Duane, I hope to believe you are right on that one

very thoughtful

Blogger

It big business to sell personal data, so the big business will win out.

Blogger

I heard just outside of Salt Lake.

CEO

Speaking of that data center in Utah...where in Utah?

Blogger

was there any webcast of blackhat keynote?

 

Author

Privacy is becomming obsolite, but it will make a comback. Right now technology for no privacy is more advance than the privacy protecting tech and the social fabric is accepting. In a few years, I think both of those will change and privacy will become both important and viable again.

Blogger

Oh, jeez, I am aligning with the jocks, too? Time to hang it up.

CEO

@rick, yeah the NSA guy had a bad time at blackhat this year for sure

Blogger

wasn't that popeye?

Blogger

The News Hour had reports from NSA whistleblowers talking about a huge data storage cetner in Utah the govt now has online. Digital archive of every phone call, they claimed

I thought Loring Wirbel ought to write an article on that one!

Author

Larry, "it is what it is" is what ESPN guys say!

Blogger

I don't like agreeing with Zuckerburg, but it is what it is.

CEO

oh yeah, people are already freaking out about the kinect on the new xbox. Afraid they'll have to pay fees for additional viewers and paranoid about spying.

Blogger

I would have laughed at that spec on a feature list, but that feature was a natural thing that got used more than half the things on the list.

Blogger

Larry, imagine that. Privacy going obsolete

Blogger

the perfect example is the headphone jack pause feature. if you pull the headphones out on accident, it pauses. I had 3 mp3 players before I got an ipod and that feature won me over.

Blogger

@Junko: Yeah the embedded vision work. Put a processor behind the sensor...the algorithms are the trick. We humans are pretty nuanced. You need a passive aggressive behavior filter and a gazillion other algorithms

Author

wether you like apple or not, you can appreciate one aspect of their design. They focused on how people actually use a device, not the spec list.

Blogger

People are adapting to being watched. Webcams and videoconferencing, as well as ubiquitous public cams are getting us there. Privacy is on its way to being obsolete.

CEO

but then, it's a trade off, rick,

you are allowing the machine to watch and hear you all the time!

Blogger

there's a phone now that will pause videos if you look away. Imagine this taken further.

Blogger

@Caleb: Good point. We are still learning the computers commands today. The goal is it picks up our natural signals

Author

"When I can give my stereo an annoyed look and it turns down a little bit "

That's what I'm waiting for.

Blogger

microsoft is playing a little bit with this on the new kinect. It can detect your pulse, so programmers can use that as a metric.

Blogger

i think we will get there, with embeded vision

Blogger

I think there's a huge future in gesture and facial recognition. People are scared of being watched, but you could do some really awesome stuff.

Blogger

the problem right now with gestures and speach are that we have to conciously adapt our natural speach or movements for the machine. When I can give my stereo an annoyed look and it turns down a little bit automatically, we've won.

Blogger

not for games

That's why I think there is a future in gesture...

Blogger

and there are a number of embedded systems being developed using Kinect -- its gesture thingy

Blogger

I think a natural interface will combine all of these in a way that makes it transparent that we're commanding a machine.  Ideally at least.

Blogger

Yes, I sometimes make gestures at my devcies, but they don't respond--thankfully!

Author

or for that matter, too early to write off gestures

Blogger

But kinect+ is baked into xbox one. Making it default means it will get more development support.

CEO

I think we are all looking for a new UI -- it's too early to write off voice

Blogger

@larryM99, yeah, it is great. Unfortunately you're looking at a TINY percentage of kinect sales. Not enough to drive it in the market.

Blogger

So, with texting being pretty much as basic a skill as is speaking now, did voice control miss its window of opportunity? Or will voice control become popular to the point where people are comfortable speaking again, leaving text as a historical artifact?

Blogger

except they're at least having conversations with another person. not carrying out a task that they could do without shouting at their phone.

Blogger

Gaming is one thing, but hackers and hobbyists are going nuts with it. That kind of sensor package at that price is very interesting.

CEO

implementing eye tracking, facial recognition, and touch-less gestures can work in public and in private. Some people are focusing on this now too. here is where the kinect can shine.

Blogger

Voice in public is like when people started to use Bluetooth headsets in public and walked around having these disembodied conversations

Author

but then, people do talk on the phone in public all the time!

Blogger

I think using voice is great when I'm alone with the phone. but in public it just doesn't work. It is rude and annoying.

Blogger

Siri and Google Now seem to be chasing that old idea of a personal assistant, but I think there are too many scenarios where it just wont work

Author

in the gaming community the kinect became a bit of a joke because no one uses it any more (no data to back this up).

Blogger

it's interesting...why people don't want to use voice as UI?

Blogger

Working voice would be great, but it's funny that the idea of speaking to a device seems pretty alien to me. Even more so now that texting is so ingrained in society.

Blogger

kinect isn't doing much OUTSIDE ms labs though.

Blogger

if you're designing an interface that people don't want to use half the time, you've got a major issue.

Blogger

Novelty is the first step. Between voice and xbox kinect we are interacting more directly than ever. I saw that kinect is interpreting sign language in MS labs.

CEO

@Caleb: I couldn't access my Amazon videos on my Nexus 7. It said they require Msoft Silverlight but could be played on a Kindle (ha!) Then said they requre Adobe Flash and the device does not support Flash!?! Go figure

Author

There's also the issue of the fact that people don't want to use voice commands in public.

Blogger

so unless google has made voice an integral part of the interface, it will also become a novelty.

Blogger

and so is for everyone else, I suppose

 

Blogger

I have siri and I have only found a small handfull of uses because it can't access many apps. That kind of made it only a novelty to me.

Blogger

as a successful UI, I mean

Blogger

Voice needs to come into play

Blogger

Larry, that's a really good point

Blogger

If voice matures then Glasses becomes much more interesting. Is the Star Trek computer far off?

CEO

Bye everybody! It is late night here in India! have a nice weekend

umm we seem to have a pregnant pause...

Blogger

I had 3 android devices at the time to play with. an htc hero, a rooted nook, and some other phone I can't remember at the moment. Downloading apps for them was horrible. 50% of the time an app just wouldn't load. The rest of the time it expected certain hardware buttons or screen resolution that weren't necessarily there.

this was before the marketplace unification.

Blogger

bad taste in your mouth, because of what?

Blogger

@Tom  Wired and other stories on Moto X make it clear Google app integration, especially Google Now (voice control) is the big thing. But will it flop like Siri?

Author

I'm in the market for a tablet now, and I still have that bad taste in my mouth. I wince at the thought even though I know it has come a long way.

Blogger

Interesting how with Nexus 7 and Moto X, Google is making a bid to be the leading Android OEM. Like to be a fly on the wall at Samsung and HTC when this comes up

Author

I haven't had a chance to play since I rooted the nook a couple years ago, but it was a nightmare just finding apps that were correctly matched to your device

Blogger

I'm really looking forward to what the Google/Motorola phone will offer.  Haven't heard much about the features.

Blogger

This has been a consistent problem with android devices due to the extremely fast growth in variety of hardware.

Blogger

I've always thought that Motorola tyurned out some pretty innovative phones. With, perhaps, a leaner and more flexible overhead structure, I would expect to see even more leading tech in their phones

Blogger

the hardware can be amazing, but if users have problems with apps not utilizing it, it won't take off

Blogger

Between quantum and optical I don't see increases in computer capability slowing down. It may not be measured in transisters per chip, but it will still increase.

CEO

Moore's law should now have an addendum - that it itself will get replaced every twenty years by a new law

I'd like to play with the voice control though.

Blogger

caleb, what do you mean? Holding it back?

Blogger

Rick, yeah, Moto X is really talking about a new UI

Blogger

moto X looks cool, but it is the android marketplace that will hold it back.

Blogger

Sorry folks... have to run off to a meeting...

Manager

Re Moto X  Wired did a good story on it  I'm trying to get in to talk with some EEs

Author

I'm also wondering what the community thinks of our story asking if Moore's Law is dead, and what that means to the defense sector in the US, China and elsewhere.  That one stirred up a hornet's nest of debate on our message boards...

Blogger

@Junko: eWaste recycling has not yet taken off in a big scale in India.

Manager

Junko - It's probably not that long before smart phones are the first, and perhaps only, computer that people will have in developed countries too.

Blogger

Another interesting thing happening in developing countries is that they're getting cell reception before telephone lines. smartphones may be their first computers, but also their first phones!

Blogger

@Junko: Exactly. Mobile is a first consumer digital client in many developing countries

Author

so, does anyone have any opinions about Moto X?

Blogger

Doc, Junko: More and more, there is a market for used phones in developing countries.  The folks who make the Coinstar machines are thinking of producing vending machines where you can trade in your old phones for cash. They would then be resold in other markets.  Interesting business model....gotta be hard. And I wonder what they do about stolen phones...

Blogger

One of the biggest problems with such fast development cycles is that things never quite get finished. UIs change radically and the developers can't get feedback in time to improve useability.

Blogger

I think what we need to be mindful of...is that in many developing countries, smartphones are their first PCs

Blogger

Exactly Docdivakar - and it is we the electronics companies that are spoiling our customers to create this garbage

Caleb: Love that. I know 25-year-olds who hate to talk on the phone, and 19-year-olds who just simply do NOT send email.   (And they wonder why the unemployment rate is high in those age groups).

Blogger

docdivakar, but I thought some of those phones ARE reused in developing countries

Blogger

PCs hit the same level. A 2% increase in capability that is already 1000% more than people use means that it is a commodity. At that point software is more important. Cell phones are rapidly getting there.

CEO

Unless I'm calling grandma that is.

Blogger

from my hand I could text, email, twitter, or message someone in any other social media. no need to call... EVER.

Blogger

@Prabhakar: very true... inspite of WEEE like initiatives, we are piling up the planet with garbage! This is a serious issue and recycling at current states leave a lot to be desired.

Manager

Junko: Guilty...I'm older. And the youth -- whose boomer parents foot the bill -- can seem to get enough new gizmos.  I was the same way at that age. I learned new technology intuitively. Now I labor over the instruction manual. I like to think my head is now full of other, more important stuff. ;-)

Blogger

in my circles, it is commonly said that the best part of having a smart phone is that you don't ever have to deal with the phone bit any more.

Blogger

Tom, "turnover" is correct for developed countries. But not in the developing countries

Blogger

Tom - I think part of the problem with smart phones is that, realistically, they're computers first with a phone application. So good software that makes the phone component feel more integral would solve the vast majority ofn smart-phone related complaints I hear in my circles.

Blogger

The smartphone market will reignite once Siri talks to Google Now ;-)

Author

Junko: I think so. But I keep seeing reports that mobile phone sales are expected to keep growing at 30-40 percent. That's turnover in phones, mostly, not a growing market.

Blogger

A new smartphone product every six months means a lot of unnecessary junk in the garbage beans of those affluent people

@Tom, burnouts? maybe among the older folks...

Blogger

@Tom: ditto... unless there is a compelling reason and my life style demands it, I am a slower adopter of new gizmos!

Manager

aw, putting everything on it fresh is part of the fun! I look forward to my yearly computer reformat for that reason!

Blogger

Doc: Yep. True. But that six month product is in the pipeline while work begins on the next one, and while the old one is still on the shelf.  And, yep, that's the headache for the supply chain folks.

Blogger

Rick: I'm with you. I'm tired of switching to an entirely new phone every year or two, having to reprogram and relearn it.  I'm actually leaning towards going back to a simpler phone. And I hear that from a lot of friends, too.  That may be anecdotal, but I'm wondering if we'll see some burnout among consumers following years of intensive marketing of the latest and greatest.

Blogger

and it is a saturated market -- I mean, the U.S. is

Blogger

@Tom: unlike the auto industry, the electronics industry can crank out a new model every 6-months if the market demands it! Good in one way but a big headache for the supply chain folks!

 

Manager

When you think about it, cell phones in a developed market are more service than product. HWaaS?

CEO

that's not necessarily the case in the rest of the world

Blogger

I think what drives the cycle is the contract. Where you do not have contract, it is different.

Manager

Handsets are still pricier for the average person in India, perhaps to a lesser extent in China so the trend is to wait longer to get a new handset.

Manager

the replacement cycle in the US is sort of anomaly

because it's so tied to the carrier contract, as tom pointed out

Blogger

An aside: just think how complicated it is for Samsung or Apple to turn out a new version of a smartphone every 12-18 months, going from design to store shelves. Any delay in supply along the way, can mean empty space on shelves for big retailers, who allot that space months in advance.

Blogger

@Doc: I suspect eventually a PC like phenom will kick in where there will not be compelling new features to upgrade and people will only replace when they drop their phone as I did this week ;-(

Author

It is a combination of replacement and new. Africa is a growing market, US and Europe are saturated and replacement.

 

CEO

That's hard to believe, but I don't have facts with me

 

Blogger

I have heard the handset lifecycle is 12-18 months.  In the US, most of the market is controlled by two-year contracts with the carriers, though there is also a lot of sale of month-to-month phones.

Blogger

really? Longer than 2 years in China?

Blogger

@Junko: the developing markets' consumers are adopting new ones at even longer than 2-year intervals? Doesn't this signal weakness for the moble chips market?

 

Manager

that's a good news for chip companies; but that means OEMs are on enternal treadmill

Blogger

IDC sees slower growth in Japan, but puts Asia-Pacific at 6.9% growth. 

Blogger

I need to check the number, but I think the life cycle is like 6 months

among young users

Blogger

no, two years too long

 

Blogger

@Junko: how long can the industry sustain the growth in mobiles and what is the replacement interval as far as the consumer is concerned? Buy a new handset every two years?

Manager

@Larry: I'm expecting chip costs to rise at 20nm and beyond as double litho patterning kicks in. But I am also expecting fewer people go as fast into the newer nodes

Author

Junko will be happy to hear the automotive segment is expected to grow 5.3% this year -- though that's a bit under the broader 6.9%

Blogger

Exactly, LarryM99. 

Blogger

The growth rate in mobile when compared with overall chip Growth indicates some negative growth in other segments?

 

Smartphones have cash registers ringing (if we had cash registers anymore)

Author

I would also like to see distribution on chip costs. One Intel CPU is a lot more expensive than ARM chips. That could be biasing the results.

CEO

that goes to show a huge growth in mobile

Blogger

i was reading MediaTek's latest financial results this morning

      • 2Q13 consolidated revenue NT$33,276 million, up 38.8% from previous quarter
      • 2Q13 consolidated gross margin 43.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from previous quarter
      • 2Q13 consolidated operating income NT$5,888 million, up 90.7% from previous quarter
      • 2Q13 consolidated net income NT$6,716 million; EPS NT$5.01
Blogger

Susan: Not surprisingly, chips for phones and tablet are soaring. And for datacenter servers.

PC demand is low, so chip sales there are declining -- old news, but it factors in.

Blogger

Mobile chip sector is expected to continue to grow.

Manager

Also, if it's just $, a country's monetary policy can affect the number, as shown in Junko's Sony story.

 

Blogger

Hi Junko, Rick, Caleb, Tom... I am sounding off from Silicon Valley!

Manager

Rick: I like that definition!   True, semiconductors are exit No. 1 on the global supply chain.  What happens down the road can cause gridlock.

Blogger

@prabhakar: Growth in mobile is deep into double digits. Its the sector keeping everybody else off the floor--along with data center build outs at Facebook, Google et al read: cloud

Author

caleb opens his dictionary to the C's

Blogger

What chip segments will do better than others? Is that one general number covering all markets?

Blogger

Larry: good question, and I don't know what formulation IDC uses.  The announcement doesn't specify. But from the way it's worded, I think it includes all kinds of chips and estimates are based on sales.

Blogger

@Tom: In the dictionary under cyclical it says "semiconductors.

This sector does more rubber necking that HWY 101 at 530pm on Friday

Author

If they are predicting the levels based on $ instead of number of chips, you would also have to take into account soft cores and other IP.

CEO

How doe sthis growth rate compare with the growth rate of the smart phones and tablets market?

 

Well, what pushed that growth? Were we on a high point due to some new tech or something? Did the tablet explosion have anything to do with it?

Blogger

@Larry: Good point. I think there's a lot of unclear detail and probably even some spaghetti on the wall in these numbers. Ballpark its in the black single digits.

Author

Actually, the IDC forecast on chip growth was that the market would increase 6.9% this year, and growth would slow to 2.7% in 2014.  I find that kind of disturbing that IDC sees that much of a slowdown after a period of rapid growth.  Is that just a cyclical change do you think?

Blogger

I think it actually does

Blogger

That's a damn good question, Larry

 

Blogger

i agree with rick

 

Blogger

Do the chip market projections take into account integration levels? An SoC pulls in a lot of logic...

CEO

For better or worse, in a rapidly maturing industry, seven percent sounds pretty good

Author

oops, was already typing.

Blogger

I'm still geeking out about this relay computer.  I love that sound!

Blogger

The story on Giant Spider robot was interesting

 

There are a few stories listed below in the announcement of this chat.  But if nobody has objections, I'd like to start with the prediction that the chip market will expand 7 % this year, but only at about half that rate next year....thoughts on that?

Blogger

Our most popular stories in July were of course the Raspberrry Pi stories.  Followed by the Has Intel Really Beaten ARM...

 

Blogger

Rick Merritt, the EE Times Silicon Valley bureau chief, and Junko Yoshida, our international correspondent, and Caleb Kraft, our chief community officer, all had great stories this week!

Blogger

We're ready, Goafrit!  Hi Junko, Caleb and Susan!

Blogger

LarryM99 checking in...

CEO

Yes, I'm taking a spot here on the couch. Lob those tomatos, folks!

Author

Hello! And welcome to today's chat!

Blogger

No idea. Define Ready!

Blogger

Hello, are we ready?

Manager

What a week for news on EE Times!  We invite to you to "Meet The Editors" on Friday, Aug. 2 at 10 am PT (1 pm ET) so that we can discuss some of the week's most intriguing stories in a fun and informative one-hour live chat.

 

Our scheduled  guests this week include: Silicon Valley Bureau Chief Rick Merritt, Managing Editor Susan Rambo, Chief Community Editor Caleb Kraft, and others. They'll review some of our hottest stories of the week: the growing chip market, subsidies for electric vehicles, the ethics of patents, the future of Moore's Law – even a giant robotic spider!  And we want to hear your take on what these stories mean.

 

Here are a few stories for briefing, but feel free to ask our editors about any story on EE Times, or any other topic that focuses on electrical engineering today.

                       

Is Moore's Law Dead? Does It Matter?

Chip Market Projected to Grow 7%

Patents: Ethics in the Workplace

Loss of Subsidies Could Burst EV Bubble

Mad Scientist Builds Giant Robot Spider

10 Tiny Development Boards That Are Up to the Task

 

 

Blogger


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