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Cowan LRA Model
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Re: Interesting - Even MORE so!
Cowan LRA Model   8/8/2013 11:40:04 AM
Hi Peter - the latest update to the Cowan LRA Model's 2013 and 2014 sales and sales growth results reveals lower sales growth numbers for both years. Sales growth (yr-o-yr) for 2013 came in at 3.1 percent which is 0.9 percentage points lower than last month's forecast estimate of 4 percent. However, 2014's sales growth forecast came in at 5.7 percent which is only 0.1 percentage point lower compared to last month's prognostication of 5.8 percent. The latest forecasted sales numbers for 2013 and 2014 are $300.7 billion and $317.4 billion, respectively, compared to last month's forecasts of $303.2 billion and $320.6 billion, respectively. These latest updated numbers reflect June sales numbers as abstracted from the WSTS's June 2013 HBR which was posted on their website yesterday, 8-08-13.

Mike Cowan, independent semi industry market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales.  

Peter Clarke
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Re: Interesting
Peter Clarke   8/8/2013 5:18:07 AM

Asia-Pacific ....including Taiwan, Korea and China ....is considerably more than half the chip market.....so declining growth there is a concern.

Asia-Pacific region grew 5.8 percent y-on-y in May average sales (March-April-May) and this declined to 5.4 percent growth y-on-y in June average sales (April-May-June).

first signs of impending weakness in 2H13? maybe?

But growth is growth. 

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Re: Interesting
resistion   8/7/2013 10:40:58 PM
Beware of larger percentages with smaller numbers. Asia Pacific still dominates by actual sales volume. A smaller denominator could allow a dramatically larger percentage to appear.

Tom Murphy
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East Meets West
Tom Murphy   8/7/2013 10:23:20 PM
I'm not sure which is more striking here, the gain in the Americas or the doldrums of Asia. And would anyone like to guess how long this can keep up?  I seem to recall a recent forecast that saw much slower growth in 2014.

Peter Clarke
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Re: Industries driving this growth?
Peter Clarke   8/7/2013 1:33:43 PM
Hi Karen

That's not something that spills out of the SIA/WSTS numbers at the level they share with the public.

It seems clear that increasing average selling prices (ASPs) for DRAM and NAND flash have helped.

Rising ASPs on DRAM can produce market expansion in spite of declining unit shipments (weak PC market). 

In the case of NAND flash it is a story of rising ASPs on rising shipments for mobile consumer equipment, but a lot of that expectation was built in, so the outlook for 2H13 from many companies is becoming cautious.

But i do reckon there are signs of growing economic strength in US and Europe while China maintains growth. Japan is another story of course.





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Industries driving this growth?
kfield   8/7/2013 12:45:03 PM
Peter - any insight on the industries that are driving this growth, particularly in the Americas?


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