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junko.yoshida
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Re: How many Automonous Cars in 2030? NONE
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 6:28:01 PM
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@Frank, that was exactly the initial reason why I decided that I need to look this into further. More stories on this topic -- breaking down the infrastructure development and actual deployment of actual autonomous cars -- will be coming soon.... 

junko.yoshida
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Re: Define Autonomy
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 6:25:46 PM
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What's a couple of decades?

Hi, Bert, wow, i love your "long-term" view! 

Frank Eory
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CEO
Re: How many Automonous Cars in 2030? NONE
Frank Eory   8/23/2013 6:25:11 PM
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The authors make an incredibly bold prediction -- that 75% of new cars worldwide will be Level 4 fully autonomous by 2035. There are a lot of roadway infrastructure investments needed as well as big innovations and cost reductions needed on the vehicle side, since by definition, if 75% of the world's new cars will be fully autonomous by that date, then they must also be very affordable by then too in order to reach that market share.

2035 is only 22 years away and it seems to me that we are already way behind schedule if this prediction is to come true.

Bert22306
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CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
Bert22306   8/23/2013 6:05:04 PM
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True. So that's why fully autonomous driving will be deployed over time, only on certain roads and for certain vehicles initially. For example, we have High Occupancy Vehicle (HOV) lanes already today, on many suburban freeways. Those would become the first roads for these fully autonomous cars.

Think about how the freeway system began as recently as the 1050s, and how prevalent they have become today. And homo sapiens has roamed the planet for at least 40,000 years. What's a couple of decades?

junko.yoshida
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Re: Define Autonomy
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 5:57:39 PM
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Bert, you wrote:


Just like with airliners, where navigation devices create the "tracks" they run on, you create these predicatble paths with vehicle to infrastructure comms. And you have emergency lanes where cars can stop in case of mechanical failures.


I think you are absolutely rigt about that. What makes that sceanrio a bit more complicated, in my humble opinion, is that there are already 250 million cars on the road that are not capable of following the "tracks" they are supposed to run on.

Bert22306
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CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
Bert22306   8/23/2013 5:45:19 PM
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I think that in fact, even Level 0 cars have a lot of autonomy built in. Most people today may not even be aware of it, unless they try to drive a Model T Ford perhaps.

Seems to me that fully autonomous cars are certainly possible, but first you have to create an infrastructure that is more predictable. But why is this hard? I've been on fully autonomous trains many times. No operator at all. The only reason they're feasible today is that the tracks make their path predictable. For that matter, same goes for airliners. They fly themselves most of the time, even for landing, and no "tracks" in sight. So why should we dismiss the possibility of making the car's relationship with roads more deterministic? You make it so cars run on predictable paths, when they operate in autonomous mode.

Just like with airliners, where navigation devices create the "tracks" they run on, you create these predicatble paths with vehicle to infrastructure comms. And you have emergency lanes where cars can stop in case of mechanical failures.

All I'm saying is, if we view this as an evolution of systems that already exist today (and they do exist today), then the rapid growth curve becomes believable.

As to what cars companies will boast about, it will be the creature comforts. Hey, things change. Engineers should know that better than anyone else. People used to boast about their horses, for pete's sake.

junko.yoshida
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Re: But I like cars
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 4:05:16 PM
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@pinhead1, I think this is exactly one of the issues that carmakers are trying to wrestle with. On one hand, they want o add all the advanced driving assistance system to their cars (adding more value),helping to pave a way to "autonomous" cars. And yet, how BMW, the owner of "Ultimate driving machine" brand, would be able to differentiate their autonomous cars from others? 

The debate on this -- how consumers will embrace it and how carmakers will pitch it -- has only begun.

pinhead1
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But I like cars
pinhead1   8/23/2013 3:59:54 PM
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As a car guy, I admit that it is kind of depressing to think about fully autonomous cars.  In spite of that, I will admit that as a Southern Californian, the thought of being able to sleep through my morning commute does have some appeal.  As an engineer, I have to believe the data that shows the "Level 1" autonomous cars that we already have (IE, stability control) is demonstrably saving lives - so I guess automation may be a good thing, in that I'll be able to sleep safely to work.

junko.yoshida
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Re: How many Automonous Cars in 2030? NONE
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 3:47:59 PM
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Loser99, these are all great questions -- and there are a lot of assumptions on the part of the automotive industry and the analyst community.

It's going to be a long road ahead, for sure. 

junko.yoshida
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Blogger
Re: Define Autonomy
junko.yoshida   8/23/2013 3:46:29 PM
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Thanks, Kris. You wrote:

I wonder at which point "normal" cars will be phased out, as analog TV today.


Interesting you say that, Kris, because that's exactly what I was wondering when I was talking to one of the market analysts earlier today. When things like V2V (vehicle to vehicle) communication becomes a mandatory feature (more stories on this topic later) in new cars, obviously, the automotive industry will start looking for some sort of incentives for a small add-on device for "normal" cars, just like the TV industry was looking for the government's help for D-to-A down coverters.

How this will all play out is still too early to tell. But things are definitely getting interesting! 

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