Design Con 2015
Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
<<   <   Page 2 / 4   >   >>
junko.yoshida
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Truly autonomous cars not realistic
junko.yoshida   8/26/2013 5:54:13 PM
NO RATINGS
@Tiger Joe, you wrote:

The best I see autonomous cars getting in the time span of 15-30 years is perhaps on divided highway situations.


So, how would that be different from autonomous cruise control system? Are these two things are the same?

 



krisi
User Rank
CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
krisi   8/26/2013 4:45:40 PM
NO RATINGS
thank you Andrzej, didn't see monthly...your analysis makese perfect sense

Andrzej11
User Rank
CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
Andrzej11   8/26/2013 4:41:13 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Kris,

I said monthly.

Furthermore, I rechecked my numbers. For 2011, NHTSA reported 21,253 deaths and 1.97 million injuries while the Wiki cites 32,367 deaths for the same year. The difference is that the Wiki includes pedestrian deaths. The Wiki number translates to about 2700 deaths per month while there were about 3000 9/11 deaths.  So I overstated it a bit in my initial observation but I think the 164,000 monthly injuries makes up for it.

Conclusion that the days of human driven vehicles are very limited remains unchanged.

Andrzej

krisi
User Rank
CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
krisi   8/26/2013 3:58:03 PM
NO RATINGS
Actually on the number of fatal casulties is much higher than 9/11, about 40,000 annually

Andrzej11
User Rank
CEO
Re: Define Autonomy
Andrzej11   8/26/2013 3:28:22 PM
NO RATINGS
I think once Level 4 cars come to market at a mass market price then the phasing out of human driven vehicles on public roads will be extremely quick. How could it be otherwise? At present the monthly casualty count on US roads alone is equivalent to the 9/11 attack. Add to that the economic benefits of greatly increased roads capacities and an end to congestion, one can only conclude that the days of human driven vehicles are quite limited.

Tiger Joe
User Rank
Rookie
Truly autonomous cars not realistic
Tiger Joe   8/26/2013 1:56:54 PM
NO RATINGS
The best I see autonomous cars getting in the time span of 15-30 years is perhaps on divided highway situations.  Once you enter the on-ramp, you could flip a switch to autonomous mode which would allow you do do all your distratcted driving tasks until you reached your exist.  Then the car would be in manual mode.


At any time during the autonomous mode, it could be overridden.  I like to think of it as a smart cruise control.

I heard on the radio that truck drivers may have to worry about employment as their job is taken over by a robot.  I find this no more realistic than pilots being out of a job for the same reason.  Someone would have to be behind the wheel at all times even if the truck is running autonomously.

Already we are submitting tasks like trading stocks and transmission of electricity to computers, giving us incidents we cannot fully explain.  It will take some while before we put our faith in similar systems for activities that are safety critical intensive.

Duane Benson
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Define Autonomy
Duane Benson   8/26/2013 1:52:41 PM
NO RATINGS
Kris, Junko - re: "I wonder at which point "normal" cars will be phased out, as analog TV today."

There's a pretty easy answer to this question. Look at classic cars on the road today with none of the modern required safety features. Cars from the 1960's and earlier are simply death-traps by today's standards, but they stay around in limited numbers, driven by car enthusiasts.

Manually driven cars will be grandfathered in, as are old, unsafe cars today. Their numbers will dwindle over time until there just aren't enough on the road to be a significant factor.

Duane Benson
User Rank
Blogger
Surprise!...
Duane Benson   8/26/2013 1:44:30 PM
NO RATINGS
I think we'll all be quite surprised at how fast this happens. My prediction is that Auto manufacturers will be offering their first cars with Level-4 self-driving capability in less than a decade. Adoption won't be that fast until people start to realize that the accident rate on self-driving cars is a fraction of what it is with conventional cars.

Yes, manufacturers will be afraid of the liability and they'll get sued. But - they will calculate the expected costs of self-driving related accident suits vs. the cost of the current liability structure and will want to push the self-drivers. NHTSA will get involved and want to see self driving as a safety feature too.

I'm expecting to see some car modder offering a self-driving kit any day now. If it's not this year, it won't be long from now and it will be before the manufacturers get in on the action.

junko.yoshida
User Rank
Blogger
Re: But I like cars
junko.yoshida   8/26/2013 11:35:37 AM
NO RATINGS
p-g, a kdinapping scenario is a good one....I would have never thought about that. Would make a great movie!

junko.yoshida
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Not seeing the point
junko.yoshida   8/26/2013 11:34:01 AM
NO RATINGS
Karen, think of our parents' generations. How hard it is to take car keys away from them, when they are really no longer fit for driving. I hope to live long enough to be chauffeured around by these self-driving cars! 

<<   <   Page 2 / 4   >   >>


Top Comments of the Week
Flash Poll
Like Us on Facebook

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Max Maxfield

Tired Old iPad 2 vs. Shiny New iPad Air 2
Max Maxfield
8 comments
I remember when the first iPad came out deep in the mists of time we used to call 2010. Actually, that's only four years ago, but it seems like a lifetime away -- I mean; can you remember ...

<b><a href=Betajet">

The Circle – The Future's Imperfect in the Present Tense
Betajet
5 comments
The Circle, a satirical, dystopian novel published in 2013 by San Francisco-based writer Dave Eggers, is about a large, very powerful technology company that combines aspects of Google, ...

Martin Rowe

Make This Engineering Museum a Reality
Martin Rowe
Post a comment
Vincent Valentine is a man on a mission. He wants to make the first house to ever have a telephone into a telephone museum. Without help, it may not happen.

Rich Quinnell

Making the Grade in Industrial Design
Rich Quinnell
16 comments
As every developer knows, there are the paper specifications for a product design, and then there are the real requirements. The paper specs are dry, bland, and rigidly numeric, making ...

Special Video Section
The LT8640 is a 42V, 5A synchronous step-down regulator ...
The LTC2000 high-speed DAC has low noise and excellent ...
How do you protect the load and ensure output continues to ...
General-purpose DACs have applications in instrumentation, ...
Linear Technology demonstrates its latest measurement ...
10:29
Demos from Maxim Integrated at Electronica 2014 show ...
Bosch CEO Stefan Finkbeiner shows off latest combo and ...
STMicroelectronics demoed this simple gesture control ...
Keysight shows you what signals lurk in real-time at 510MHz ...
TE Connectivity's clear-plastic, full-size model car shows ...
Why culture makes Linear Tech a winner.
Recently formed Architects of Modern Power consortium ...
Specially modified Corvette C7 Stingray responds to ex Indy ...
Avago’s ACPL-K30T is the first solid-state driver qualified ...
NXP launches its line of multi-gate, multifunction, ...
Doug Bailey, VP of marketing at Power Integrations, gives a ...
See how to ease software bring-up with DesignWare IP ...
DesignWare IP Prototyping Kits enable fast software ...
This video explores the LT3086, a new member of our LDO+ ...
In today’s modern electronic systems, the need for power ...