We have the technology to create fully autonomous cars and release them on the market but I bet only a few people will buy such cars, the price is going to be too expensive. I will continue driving my Chuck Stevens of Bay Minette vehicle and will buy an autonomous car when it will have an affordable price.
I think we can not say that we can see these numbers of vehicle in our recent future because the automotive market is increasing day by day and various new model vehicles are in front of us as an example of it. So, this is really going to be a tough task to make a guess. As we all heard of Google's Self driving car. It is a great thing that we can reduce road blocks, accident and crash because of these self driving cars but, before launching the same our car makers have to go through a complete testing process so that they can visualize the experience of each and every part. As self driving cars are completely based on technology and the user have no control on its driving so, it can be a threat but, if proper care taken of then it will be helpful for us. Whether we have a self driving autonomous vehicle or a normal vehicle if proper care not taken then we have to face various car related issues like car crash, car accident, engine problem and many more. So as per my suggestion we people have to search for a best repair center near to us respective of the car that we have.
As mechanical failure would become the leading cause of motor vehicle accidents with the advent of autonomous vehicles, there would be significant pressure applied to motor vehicle companies to improve car reliability.
Furthermore, the congestion costs resulting from any given road collision would be much greater given that road capacities, and subsequent utilization rates, are expected to increase significantly with the advent of autonomous cars further incentivizing society as a whole to make cars more reliable to avoid accidents.
Hand-in-hand with this, preventative maintenance would become mandatory. Performing zero maintenance and driving your car until it fails on the road would no longer be an option. I see car manufacturers borrowing a page from the aircraft manufacturers and rating critical components for a certain number of hours after which replacement would be mandatory. Your vehicle would simply shutdown if you tried to drive it beyond some critical components rated lifespan.
Wow! It feels really good to hear about the prediction of increase in demand of Autonomus Cars. As per the Senior Research Analyst, David Alexander the demand of Autonomous cars can increase from 0.01 % to 75 % during the time period of 15 years that is from 2020 to 2035. But, I have a doubt that how the user of the vehicle will take such Autonomous cars. So, there is a time when the cars will come and we have to stop this topic and will again start about the same when they come. But, we have to take care of what we have. Most of the people do not do any maintenance as well as servicing of the vehicle and results car does not work, car stopped at middle of the road, car crash and car accidenmts. So, we have to take care of our vehicle and it is our responsibility.
The divided highway could be seen at the test case for autonomous cruise control. They key difference between regular cruise control and that is the steering wheel input, along with needed use of the brakes, without causing the system to shut off (or revert to manual mode) in the case of regular cruise control. But maybe that would be a good design feature.
I think cars need a lot of time using the divided highway as a test bed and then making that aspect of driving commercial available before we even think to solve the problem of driving in city traffic. Next, could come deserted country roads, maybe between checkpoints allowing someone to turn on such a system, and then it would turn off as soon as you approach a town, forcing you to manually drive through that.
In other words, I see a hybrid system for many years, before a fully autonomous vehicle is even possible.
I think the challenge is that while humans makemany kinds of mistakes, all the alternatives are even worse. Reading obscure warning signs or recognizing the significance of something out of the ordinary is a challenge for automated systems. Rolling a monorail train down a dedicated right-of-way is very different from navigating down a crowded road and recognizing that the cyclist on your right is about to take a spill.
@DrQuine, that's definitely an interesting notion. Insurance companies do have a big sway in this -- one way or another.
Two years ago, Bob Joop Goos, chairman of the International Organisation for Road Accident Prevention, was quoted by saying:
"More than 90 percent of road accidents are caused by human error. We, therefore, have to focus on people in our traffic safety programmes."
If that still holds true, getting human drivers out of the equation by asking them to rely on semi-autonomous, or full-autonomous cars, does make sense, and insurance companies shold like it, provided that autonomous cars work well withouth causing accidents.
The tipping point for autonomous cars will occur when automobile insurance offers a discount for travel in an autonomous car. If statistical analysis demonstrates the autonomous car is safer in all conditions than a car with a human driver, the technology has succeeded. I predict there may be some intermediate steps where the autonomous car is rated better than the worst drivers but not as good as the best drivers. This may result in some interesting insurance policies.