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Garcia-Lasheras
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
Garcia-Lasheras   8/29/2013 7:02:52 AM
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Moore's law was born with CMOS and will die with CMOS too. This is all about the physical limit of a technology!!

Next gen materials, as well as next gen processing architectures, are the only hope for the future. I'm eager for tomorrow discussion on EETimes Week in Review chat

Intel's CPU clock speed

Intel's CPU clock speed



David Ashton
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How many times have we heard this?
David Ashton   8/29/2013 4:07:49 AM
I suspect (Arthur C) Clarke's Laws apply here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke's_three_laws

There seems still some way to go in terms of nm transistor size, and already we are expanding into 3 dimensions.  Have the esperts taken this into account?  My feeling is the 3D expansion will carry us a fair bit further.  Could someone who knows more than I do (which is not much) comment?

 

rick merritt
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Re: Then There Were Three?
rick merritt   8/29/2013 1:45:24 AM
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Three is probably right. One for Intel, TSMC ad some fool who loses his shirt.

docdivakar
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Then There Were Three?
docdivakar   8/28/2013 10:24:23 PM
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The way it is going now as regards to the $$ required to build the next generation fab, it may very well take $10B+ to build a 5nm fab, affordable to only a handful of them, perhaps three? Any guesses? TSMC...

MP Divakar

resistion
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Hints from NAND
resistion   8/28/2013 7:45:57 PM
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I suppose a big hint comes from NAND Flash transistor scaling slowing noticeably after 20 nm.

rick merritt
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
rick merritt   8/28/2013 5:03:14 PM
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I was surprised he didn't metnion mateirals, graphene and etc. But I bet he has an opinion on it.

I hope to interview him sometime this fall. He's off on vacation now.

Meanwhile, anyone know if graphene, buckyballs or some other magic material is going to save or bacon when EUV sputters at the finish line?

chipmonk0
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/28/2013 2:46:19 PM
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You could say that people have already pulled their head out of "sand" ( i,e. silicon ) and looking at other materials with higher electron mobility and lower leakage. Did the ex Intel guy at ARPA ( whose name I did n't recognize ) get into any of those novel materials ? If and when they move from Lab to Fab, they might even upset the current pecking order among SemiCos ( both IDM and Foundries ). 

Good Physics have a way of disrupting extrapolations - both for and against Moore's Law.

wilber_xbox
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
wilber_xbox   8/28/2013 1:59:02 PM
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Its kind of good for both Physics and innovation. Moore's law has stalled a lot of promising technologies that should have received funding but ecomonics stopped all such technologies. Hopefully some other material than silicon will see the light.

rick merritt
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Re: Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
rick merritt   8/28/2013 1:22:47 PM
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Get your heads out of the sand, folks. Advances will continue but exponential advances are coming to an end.

Don't believe me. Don't even believe this ex Intel Pentium manager and DARPA project manager. Don't even believe Henry Samueli:
2013-05-23  Broadcom: Time to prepare for the end of Moore's Law
Just believe whatever feels good for you.


chipmonk0
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Moore's Law may be dead but Long live Dr. Moore
chipmonk0   8/28/2013 11:30:45 AM
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He is a mere 85 !

But just for kicks someone should put together a list of various arguments over the years ( some even invoking Physics ) why Moore's Law is about to keel over.

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