There seems still some way to go in terms of nm transistor size, and already we are expanding into 3 dimensions. Have the esperts taken this into account? My feeling is the 3D expansion will carry us a fair bit further. Could someone who knows more than I do (which is not much) comment?
The way it is going now as regards to the $$ required to build the next generation fab, it may very well take $10B+ to build a 5nm fab, affordable to only a handful of them, perhaps three? Any guesses? TSMC...
You could say that people have already pulled their head out of "sand" ( i,e. silicon ) and looking at other materials with higher electron mobility and lower leakage. Did the ex Intel guy at ARPA ( whose name I did n't recognize ) get into any of those novel materials ? If and when they move from Lab to Fab, they might even upset the current pecking order among SemiCos ( both IDM and Foundries ).
Good Physics have a way of disrupting extrapolations - both for and against Moore's Law.
Its kind of good for both Physics and innovation. Moore's law has stalled a lot of promising technologies that should have received funding but ecomonics stopped all such technologies. Hopefully some other material than silicon will see the light.
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