I think other articles have morphed Moore's law into more of a functional "double the transistors" rather than size. This allows 3d developments to fit into the concept and is much more usable. I'd think an "expert" would realize this. Obviously, you eventually get down to atomic sizes and it becomes difficult to get there from here. But transistors per unit area is would account for 3d stuff.
Charles, what you said is a philosophical reality while in practice we all know the Moore's law as we know it today will hit the wall both economically and technologically. Though we might discover some way to satisfy our ego and keep improving the hardware performance.
Thanks for your article. You know, this is a joke. Why don't these so call experts spend time developing a new concept that can help society instead of focusing on what has been around for years. This semester I am teaching a college level Business Comptuer Application course and next week the lecture topic will be, you guessed it, Moore's Law. Moore's Law is not dead and Moore's Law will not be dead as long as we continue to teach it within the educational system. Moore's Law, Moore's Law and more Moore's Law.
Few years back, there was an analysis of inventions/innovations/discoveries over the past centuries; dating back to the Mongolian era. I wish I could find that article which had discussed the revelations about what it takes to enable the paradigm shifts that have occurred. But one of the findings of that analysis was the shocking [to me] fact that they actually happen in spurts and in bunches during a small period of time. The analysis had further gone and found out that these cycles were a confluence of events that were not just limited to drastic social changes and congregation of equal minds being collocated in a small area of the world, just prior to such discoveries. Google searches will lead to many different hits on such happenstances. I hope I have provided the fish hook for those interested in fishing further (or are hungry enough)!
It may be that we are in a period of time that is the lull before one of those storms are about to happen again.
Moore's observation and move on with our lives. The death of Moore's law has been forecast repeatedly for the last 20 or more years. So what if it eventually happens. We will have EXTREMELY dense silicon (or whatever you want to call it) by the time it happens (to match the EXTREMELY DENSE pundits who worry about it). Move along folks, nothing to see here ;-)
I believe that as fewer resources are directed at improving vanilla CMOS due to the slowing of Moore's law, other related technologies will flourish. It's beginning to happen already. The author is correct when he says to follow the money. The money has started to flow away from CMOS to MEMS, photonics, flexible electronics, and a plethora of other technologies that are poised for fast growth. If you were a wealthy venture capitalist today where would you invest your money?
@DRQuoine: Indeed as Intel's mark Bohr used to say "People have been predicting the end of Moore's Law in ten years for 20 years" The difference is now they are saying in 7-9 years, and I suspect that time frame will only shorten.
@pseudoid: Hey if there's a contrarian out there with a new device manufacturing technology that promises exponential growth for the next 30 years, let that person stand up and speak! Until then, umbrella anyone?
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