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Bye, enjoy the weekend!!

Blogger

@Susan: Oh Max, you'll always be young at heart.

I only just started my third childhood :-)

Later, people. Have a good weekend.

CEO

bye all- CU next week, have a great weekend...

Blogger

Oh Max, you'll always be young at heart. 

Blogger

@Duane: Max, I'm still thinking about the Pixy. I may back the project yet.

You knwo you can't resist -- why fight it? Walk toward the light... :-)

@susan: How quickly you forget.

When you get to my age...

Don;t forget to check out the videos in my Cool Beans blog (http://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1319369) and post a comment saying which you like the best

@max, if moore's law has collasped. How quickly you forget.

 

Blogger

Yes - Have a great weekend, all. And Max, I'm still thinking about the Pixy. I may back the project yet.

Blogger

@susan: let me know, too

Let u know 2 what?

@Max: Leave a voice mail message!

Author

OK Everyone -- I'm heading out also (well, after posting the columns I'm working on)

I hope everyone has a WONDERFUL weekend

@Max, let me know, too.

Blogger

Max - Let's hope Google is never armed. Then we'd have "Colossus, the Forbin Project."

Blogger

@Rick, @Duane, @Max: you know, software is like a gas: it expands to fill all the space available!!

Blogger

@Rick: I am headed for a three and a half day weekend, even if Moore's Law complely collapses Saturday morning.

If Moore's Law does collapse on Saturday morning, I'll call you at home to let you know :-)

I hear that, Rick. Look at the PS3 versus the PS4. Sony learned that the hard way.

CEO

@Duane: Microosft and Google make bigger, clunkier software stacks.

But then i think of all the work that goes on behind the scenres when I make a Google Query and I'm blown away...

OK one more Colwell-ism and then I am headed for a three and a half day weekend, even if Moore's Law complely collapses Saturday morning. Here it is:

Colwell on post-CMOS entrepreneurs: "Watch out for opportunities if general-purpose processors stall out...however please don't design something you can't program. We've done that too many times and its embarrassing."

Author

@Duane: And the software corollary: As Moore's Law makes larger memories and faster processors, Microosft and Google make bigger, clunkier software stacks.

Author

@Rick: Silicon lattice has a spacing between adyacent atoms of  0.5430710 nm -- so current process are not far from 100 atoms !

Blogger

Part of the problem with Moore's Law is that there is an inverse law that goes along with it: "For every increase in computing capability, there is a slightly larger than proportional increase in computing demand." That's why, while for a long time, big iron computers got smaller and smaller, but now the the big iron (super computers and data centers) can now be so large as to dwarf the old "giant" computers.

Blogger

@Caleb: Fuzzy dreidel. LOL

Author

Colwell on nano: "You can make some interesting things at the level of 100 to a 1,000 atoms -- the equivalent of a gyro, focal plane arrays – there's very cool stuff happening there."

Author

@caleb: Once upon a time, halving the size of a transistor implied x2 Speed, x4 number and %2 Power: that's what Moores's Law was about.

Now we must focus on electron --information-- movement...

The main budget is "communication", not "processing" !!!

Blogger

I would bet that someone has tried...

We added them after seeing the Israelis do it. We do learn...

CEO

@Caleb: fuzzy dreidel

That's easy for you to say!

@Larry: On the other hand, the Israelis put rear-view mirrors in their F-16s...

Well Duh! How else would you fly backwards?

@rick, fuzzy dreidel

 

Blogger

@Larry:

I seem to recall rear-views on our F-16's back in the days when I was working on them.  For sure, our F-4's had them...

Blogger

I hate to bring up the K acronym (KGD) but the way that most companies are pushing along at Moore's rate is by stacking and vertical growth. Thus, KGD comes into play. KGD has been one of the persistant "on the horizon" big things for 30 years. I work for a BI and Test company and we are seeing significant movement in WLBI. This is the way to keep the Moore's law train rolling.

 

CEO

@Larry: Do the Israeli's hang fuzzy dice off those mirrors?

Author

@Dr FPGA: Yep, we need a REAL 3D fabrication technology at the close to atomic scale. Easy to say, but difficult to do...

What we do today with silicon is $%^& difficult to do ... but we do it ... and we will learn to do anything we want to do (said Max boldly)

On the other hand, the Israelis put rear-view mirrors in their F-16s, something that we never considered. Sometimes ad-hoc can be powerful...

CEO

I like Duane's comment about the engine. "Silicon is nearing that wall. What's out jet engine?" I thought the cognitive computer chip was interesting emulating neurons, synapses, dendrites, and axons in the brain's neural networks using special-purpose silicon circuitry." It's stil silicon though.

 'Corelets' Prime Cognitive  http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319173

Blogger

@DrFPGA:

I could see it with some sort of CVD, but the problem would be keeping a crystal structure in the build.  Unless you're hysically pushing atoms around, there's no guarantee to keep a planer, monocrystaline surface, and that's required for the semiconductor to work.

Blogger

With regard to 3D ICs -- check out my blogs The State of the Art in 3D IC Technologies (http://www.programmableplanet.com/author.asp?section_id=1925&doc_id=247786) and Monolithic 3D IC Technologies (http://www.programmableplanet.com/author.asp?section_id=1925&doc_id=247805)

@Duane: and the world largest Quantum computer has had only 84 Qubits ;-)

Blogger

@Rick:

I can see tyhe dart driver texting on his MFD, and driving it into a tree...

Blogger

@Rick:

I can see tyhe dart driver texting on his MFD, and driving it into a tree...

Blogger

@tom-ii: Yep, we need a REAL 3D fabrication technology at the close to atomic scale. Easy to say, but difficult to do...

Blogger

Colwell of DARPA: "I have twice had a two-star or higher general say 'Look at all these smartphone apps – military technology should be more like that,' and I said 'you'ld put that in an F16!'

 

Author

If we talk about electronics, then electron Compton wavelenght is a good measure for the frontier of boolean --deterministic-- logic (about 12 decimal zeros)

Blogger

Well, if we consider moore's law in the more vague sense of doubling performance instead of transistors it changes the argument a bit.

Blogger

@DrFPGA:

Sorta been there & done that - wafer bonding to build 3D structures.  Royal PITA...

Blogger

Well- one way to break away from Moore's law would be to do REAL 3D ICs. No wafers (2D) but fabricate in real 3D cubes...

Blogger

@Tom: There comes a point where brute force becomes a nuicanse...

But "brute force" is the reason I became an engineer :-)

Garcia - I grew up in Kelso, Washington, on the West coast of the USA. Our little airport had the manufacturer of one of the most famous and closest to working flying cars back in the 1950s / 60s. I think he built like two or three of them. No one has done any better than "build two or three." The current ones are still just hype as far as I can see.

Blogger

@Tomii: "Eventually we'll hit the plank length, and something will have to change"

I totally agree -- but we'll hit some other physical limits before planck length (35 decimal zeros)!!!

Blogger

@Garcia: My advice i that you should get comfortable if still waiting for them ;-)

And I should stop holding my breath? Phew!

@Duane: Flying cars are realizable today, but Quantum Computers are not ;-)

Blogger

Rick, but if you back up the scale a bit might it become possible for higher-level manufacturers to work with them directly? I keep thinking about Google / Facebook / Amazon designing their own servers. Why not move to the next level as well?

CEO

It don't matter.  Eventually we'll hit the plank length, and something will have to change.  There comes a point where brute force becomes a nuicanse, and elegance in design will matter.

Foryunately, as a proven idiot, I don't have to worry about that for a long time...

Blogger

@Max: " I'm still waiting..."

My advice i that you should get comfortable if still waiting for them ;-)

Blogger

Max - we'll get our quantum computers when we all get our flying cars.

Blogger

Colwell notes that exponentials such as Moore's Law are rare in electronics and life in general. Say goodbye to one but don't expect another ride that fast for awhile. It was the best roller coaster we may see.

Author

@garcia: Quantum computers are predicted to...

Don't talk to me about Quantum computers ... I'v ebeen hearing about them for ages ... and I'm still waiting...

Quantum computers are predicted to operate using different kind of algorithms. They are not just a way for go beyond silicon limits -- and they can't even replace the standard boolean logic. 

Blogger

@Larry: Don't tell TSMC or Intel transistors are easy, Especially not when they are paying for their steppers ;-)

 

Author

Curently we are incredibly invested in a "Silicom" ecosystem. There are things we can do, like using silicon-germanium alloys that will boost speed and reduce power at the same technology node -- and we have thinks like the new FinFET technologies.

But eventually I have no doubt that we will move to graphene-based devices (or something else ... who knows?) 

@Max:

Too bad TCE is dying this weekend.  I guess I'm out of a job there, and I had a few in the pipeline for them...

Blogger

Susan, I think we may want to go back and rethink chip-level manufacturing and integration of chips into products. It might be time to build the products directly out of transistor-level components.

CEO

Yeah, well...  interesting work is still work when it involves meetings...

Blogger

Hi Tom -- better late than never LOL

@Rick: They tore it apart and found two of the transistors had no wires going to them.

I remember an old computer in the UK -- thsi was a "big boy" -- not a personal workststion -- it came running with one clock speed -- when you needed to upgrade, you could buy another motherboard that ran at twice the clock speed.

The man woudl come from the factory, take your motherboard out, and plug the new one in, and leave. As soon as he was out of sight, he would flip the "2X" switch on your old motherboard -- this was the one he would install in the next company's computer...

Rick, that is what I am talking about. Companies take the easy route because more transistors are an easy metric for 'better'. New and different can be scary.

CEO

Here's what I'm talking about - In the early day's of aviation, piston engine / propeller drive aircraft got progressively faster. Engines got bigger, with increased horsepower. The last days of the piston engine saw some incredibly complex monsters.

But the piston and prop hit a pretty solid wall. Fortunately, the jet cam along at about the same time. It's completely different. Different principles and different implementation. It's not even measured the same. Piston in horsepower and jets in thrust.

Silicon is nearing that wall. What's out jet engine? Graphene? Quantum? Something else?

Blogger

@Duane: "We may just have to change the scale"

But the will always be some physical limrs for the scale. Bohr radius is about 5x10?11 meters, and we are now to close to nanometer scale -- 5nm is 5x10?9 meters so there is a rough x100 scale margin.

Blogger

@LarryM99, interesting. What do you think will likely replace it? Nano? Rick, yes  a lot of money has been made off Moore's Law. 

 

Blogger

Moore Money Moore Problems

Blogger

Hey, gang.  1st time visitor to this particular forum.

 

Hey Max - sorry I missed out on yesterday's - was busy.

Blogger

The pocketbook issue is you can use those extra transistors to create something that compels people to give you significantly Moore money every two years. Without the extra transistors, you may only get a little more money. Electronics becomes less exciting for consumers, Wall Street. Oh oh

Author

Rick, that's funny!

 

Blogger

@Rick, that's funny.  

 

Blogger

Rick - That's funny.

Blogger

Susan, I think that the industry has been using Moore's Law as a crutch for quite a while now. Hitting a wall there would allow engineers to consider more creative alternatives.

CEO

Maybe the questions isn't "will Moore's Law stop?" so much as it is "What will replace it?" Just because at some point Si can't handle any smaller geometries doesn't mean something else won't pick up the wagon and allow continued improvements in performance. We may just have to change the scale.

Blogger

well, what happens when we come up with something new instead of just doubling transistors?

Blogger

Another Colwell classic: Like's learning moments: He had his first transistor radio, a six transistor model. His friend had an eight transistor model and he was jealous. They tore it apart and found two of the transistors had no wires going to them.

Author

What will replace Moore's Law and if Moore's Law dies, with the earth stop spinning? What will the effect be?

Blogger

Anyone know at what lithography we end up with individual atoms? That would seem to be the brick wall...

Blogger

Hi Warren (a.k.a. Dr FPGA)

Wot Ho Duane (I can't believe you haven;t signed up for at least one of those Pixy sensor boards yet)

@Rick: People treat Moore's Law like the dying Tinkerbell in Peter Pan. Just believe hard enough and it will come back to life.

LOL  I remember in 1990 when we moved to the 1 micron node ... people predicted the end of Moore's law .. they said 0.5um (500nm) was as far as we could go ... then we got to 500 nm, then lower, and lower and lower ... and we're still plunging on...

As a total aside -- can you all bookmark this URL for after this chat http://www.eetimes.com/author.asp?section_id=36&doc_id=1319369

This leads to a blog that contains some really "feel good" videos that will put you in the right mood for the holiday weekend.

Here's a funny one from Colwell: People treat Moore's Law like the dying Tinkerbell in Peter Pan. Just believe hard enough and it will come back to life.

Author

Regarding the topic of the day, I'm not so sure it is that big a deal. We are still working out what can be done with customized SoC's. It actually might be a good thing to slow down the process changes to let us catch up.

CEO

@M99: I used to LOVE Get Smart as a kid (we had it in England)

Just don't go down to 99. I don't have the body for that (obscure Get Smart reference).

CEO

@Caleb: Those low-cost machine vision sensors are an amazingly clever idea

@Caleb: I sit on my hands at stop lights.

That's the way my mother drives :-)

@max, that happens on kickstarter all too much

Blogger

Hi LarryM99 (can I call you M99 for short? :-)

@Caleb: So, your Pixy blog has led me to spend more of my hard-earned money...

haha. That reminds me of driving in winter. My vw bus has no heat, so I sit on my hands at stop lights.

Blogger

Larrym99 checking in...

CEO

So, I understand Robert Colwell of DARPA has become known for some pretty detailed talks on why and how Moore's Law aka CMOS scaling will end in the next 7-9 years. Anyone heard any of them?

Author

@Caleb: Just warming up my fingers, don't mind me!


It's wondering where you've stuck them to warm them up that has me worried...

Just warming up my fingers, don't mind me!

 

Blogger

The "EE Times Week In Review" is a live online chat about what's been happening in electronics and engineering and what you thought about it all, from hard news to the weird and wonderful.

This week's chat will take place on Friday, August 30, 2013, commencing at 10:00 a.m. Pacific Time / 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

Although we will be talking about anything and everything of interest, our lead topic will be Rick Merritt's article: Moore's Law Dead by 2022, Expert Says

Here's a link to that article:

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1319330



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