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Bill J SCIQ
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Rookie
Re: 3Q & 4Q Sequntial sales Growth Expectations Ala Cowan LRA Model
Bill J SCIQ   9/4/2013 12:00:48 PM
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Peter, your 10 year average growth rates for 3Q and 4Q include the disastrous 24.2% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008 at the beginning of the great recession. If you exclude 4Q 2008, the average growth rates are 8.5% and 0.9%. Using these growth rates for 2013 would result in 5.6% growth for the year.

As to the Euro area recovery contribution to growth, it is the increase in demand for electronic goods which is the key factor. It is not electronics manufacturing - where most of the growth will continue to be in Asia. The Euro area accounts for 17% of global GDP compared to 22% for the U.S. and 12% for China. Thus the Euro area recovery will contribute to overall demand for electronics.

DMcCunney
User Rank
CEO
Re: Healthy Growth?
DMcCunney   9/3/2013 5:19:54 PM
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A lot of electronics equipment manufacturing has already left Europe.

Certainly.  But how will a recovering European economy affect demand for the things manufacturers make?


Chip manufacturers and vendors building things the chips are included in will all be reading the tea leaves and trying to forecast demand, then basing capex and production volumes on it.


A recovery in the chip market ultimately requires end users to go the the store and buy the new shiny.


Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Healthy Growth?
Peter Clarke   9/2/2013 6:16:37 AM
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While a recovery in the general European economy is slowly gathering pace I am not sure it will make as much difference to the semiconductor market as you might expect.

A lot of electronics equipment manufacturing has already left Europe. Almost no computers or cellphones are made here and industrial and automotive subsystem builds face competition from the eastern hemisphere.

I would look to India, China, Vietnam, South America to make the difference.

 

 

 

 

 

wilber_xbox
User Rank
Manager
Re: SEMI's World Fab Forecast report
wilber_xbox   8/31/2013 9:57:11 AM
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Do they also beakdown the finding of their report as why the next year will be better or what could have been done better in 2013, the general good bad and ugly part of the industry?

wilber_xbox
User Rank
Manager
Re: Healthy Growth?
wilber_xbox   8/31/2013 9:48:23 AM
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I agree that health growth is a relative term and highly dependent on the sector and overall economy growth. 10% is really good growth given today's situation. Hopefully the recovery in Europe will brighten things up.

geekmaster
User Rank
CEO
SEMI's World Fab Forecast report
geekmaster   8/30/2013 6:41:43 PM
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We are waiting for SEMI's World Fab Forecast report. The report is scheduled for publication today (August 30). I heard that 2014 looks pretty rosy.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Re: 3Q & 4Q Sequntial sales Growth Expectations Ala Cowan LRA Model
Cowan LRA Model   8/30/2013 2:48:54 PM
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Hi Peter - every month I have shared with you my monthly forecast write-ups going back for many years. As part of my monthly write-up I have included a table that tracks the month-by-month "evolution" of my forecast expectations including both the sales and sales growth forecast history. You can thus go back and quickly peruse these past write-ups for the included table in order to check out "eye-ball wise" the model's forecasting track record. As an example the latest table (third table in the write-up) can be found at the following URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5ALSED-2013-and-2014-s-global-semiconductor-sales-and-y-o-y-sales-growth-expectations-per-cowan-lra-model.

Under separate cover I will pull together representative tables and associated numbers going back a number of years in order to share the results with you in a more meaningful way.

Mike Cowan

 

 

 

 

DrFPGA
User Rank
Blogger
Healthy Growth?
DrFPGA   8/30/2013 1:08:38 PM
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Some of us remember when healthy growth was expected to be way above 10%...

What we need is a really big new application area. Maybe the Internet of Things will make for some healthy growth as we fondly remember it. 

Peter Clarke
User Rank
Blogger
Re: 3Q & 4Q Sequntial sales Growth Expectations Ala Cowan LRA Model
Peter Clarke   8/30/2013 12:47:57 PM
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Thanks Mike

Always interesting to see how your model predicts.

Now on the bearish side.

But how accurate have you been ?

Can you do analysis that shows what you predicted at various lead times for a given year over say the last 10 years and work out how accurate the model has been?

When I did some number crunching on this I found that anything more than one or two quarters ahead is almost bound to be wrong big time OR lucky.....the errors diverge like this ...<

This is one reason why i treat market research that extends a couple of years with extreme caution and anything further out as fantasy that has little bearing on the real world.

As said the errors go very wide very quickly and 2014 remains a mystery.

 

 

 

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
3Q & 4Q Sequntial sales Growth Expectations Ala Cowan LRA Model
Cowan LRA Model   8/30/2013 12:37:03 PM
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Hi Peter - I thought I would "chime in" with last month's run of the Cowan LRA forecast model re. both 3Q and 4Q sequential sales growth forecasts relative to the results reported by Bill Jewell and yourself. Based on June's sales numbers as cited by the WSTS's HBR, the model's 3Q and 4Q sequential sales growth expectations came in at plus 5.3 percent and minus 2.1 percent, respectively. The model's corresponding quarterly sales forecast estimates are $78.64 billion and $76.95 billion, respectively. resulting in a full year sales forecast for 2013 of $300.69 billion. Consequently, the model's sequential sales growth numbers are less bullish than both Bill's "needed" results of 6 percent per quarter and your numbers as gleamed by averaging ten years of historical WSTS quarterly actual sales numbers. By the way the next run of the model will be next week immediately following the WSTS posting of the July HBR. Therefore, stay tuned for the updated expectations which will be geared off July's actual sales.

Mike Cowan 



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