Hi Peter - as a follow on to my previous comment posting re. 2013's Cowan LRA Model's sales and sales growth forecast expectations, see below, I am providing your readers the model's predictions for 2014.
2014's sales and sales growth forecast projections are $320.45 billion and 5.4 percent, respectively. The updated sales number is up from last month's forecast estimate of $317.4 billion while the sales growth expectation is down very slightly (0.2 percentage points) from last month's prediction of 5.6 percent. Of course, the updated 2014 sales growth is relative to the newly updated sales projection for 2013 of $303.9 billion as quoted in my earlier comment posting.
Mike Cowan, independent semi industry watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales.
Hi Peter - the SIA cited 3MMA July global semiconductor sales of $25.534 billion "translates" to an actual July sales number of $25.502 billion. This back-calculated actual sales result represents a record high semi-industry sales number for the month of July. Additionally plugging this actual July sales into the Cowan LRA model yields a 2013 full year sales forecast expectation of $303.9 billion which is up 1.1 percent from last month's forecast of $300.7 billion. The corresponding full year 2013 sales growth forecast becomes 4.2 percent which is up from last month's forecast of 3.1 percent reflecting the strength of July's record high actual sales. The year-to-date sales number through July becomes $170.6 billion which is up 2.4 percent compared to 2012's July YTD sales of $166.5 billion. Finally, the full July forecast monthly write-up will be posted on the weSRCH website following the WSTS's posting of the July HBR, Historical Billings Report, which is expected by the 9th of this month.
Mike Cowan (independent market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales)
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