Yesterday veteran analyst Bill McClean said the semi sector is effectively closed to new entrants given the investments to get in and stay in at this point
I understand India's import balance issue. I would say these fabs don't have much chance of success were it not for partners like IBM and STM
I wonder what are their stakes and interests in the project? What are the process node targets?
Not sure why infrastructure is being made that big an issue. yes it is shoddy but nothing that will hold a fab plant back.
It is more of an issue for auto and heavy equipment makers since port congestion and transportation hurts them more.
But for a fab, power is actually available. coal shortage is an issue but that is more of a policy issue regarding coal imports.
Nokia for example had one of the fastest startup for any of their green field projects in Chennai. But water is a problem in that city. Same goes for Hyundai, Ford, BMW, Nissan, Merecedes Benz trucks - all of whom manufacture in the city. Hyundai and Ford do huge volumes. Same goes for Suzuki in Delhi.
The main issue actually govt red tape which can bog a project down. But that depends on location. If location is Gujarat, I can assure you it can be built faster there than most places on the planet. Reliance built the world's largest refinery complex and commissioned it in less than 36 months. believe me a vertically integrated refinery is a lot more complex than a fab.
Bottom line, this efforts success boils down to financial viability, infrastructure is a red herring. There is certainly internal demand to justify even more fabs. But having a fab is one thing but building successful ic oems is an entirely different ball game. If ST for example can shift production to this fab for local consumption then it will set a good example.
This is very good news for India. Now how fast can this fab can start giving output? Next important milestone will be getting output from this fab and eventually see them making profit. Hope it should not make burden/liability to Indian tax payers.
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