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Cowan LRA Model
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Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
Cowan LRA Model   11/5/2013 8:26:11 PM
Hi Rich - per the subject of my post, even though September's 3MMA semi sales, as reported by the SIA, reached an industry record high monthly sales, the actual sales for September, as determined by back-calculating from the 3MMA sales numbers, represents a second record high monthly sales coming in at $29.398 billion compared to the actual record high monthly sales of $29.511 billion which occured back in Sept. 2011.  Additionally, plugging September's actual sales number into the Cowan LRA forecasting model yields sales growth expectations for 2013 and 2014 of 3.1 (NOTE: should be 4.1) percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, corresponding to 2013 and 2014 global semi sales forecast estimates of $303.45 billion and $317.83 billion, respectively. Mike Cowan (independent semi market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales).  

Cowan LRA Model
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Re: Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
Cowan LRA Model   11/6/2013 8:08:07 AM
Hi Rich (again) - CORRECTION to my post below: 2013 sales growth expectation should be 4.1 percent NOT 3.1 percent (see below).  The quoted 2013 forecast sales number, as stated, is correct - obviously a typo. Mike Cowan

RichQ
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Re: Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
RichQ   11/6/2013 11:53:30 AM
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Thanks for the additional analysis. Perhaps the differences in calculations reflect that three-month moving average that the SIA uses. Either way, record or not, it looks like things are growing, which after the last few years of economic stagnation is a good thing.

selinz
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CEO
Re: Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
selinz   11/6/2013 1:16:48 PM
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Now I don't know.. Record or not?!

RichQ
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Record or not?!
RichQ   11/6/2013 1:27:40 PM
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Depends entirely on how you want to keep score. The more important point is that sales have grown strongly.

rick merritt
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Re: Record or not?!
rick merritt   11/6/2013 11:08:37 PM
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Good to see steady movement forward, albeit at a slow pace.

goafrit
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Re: Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
goafrit   11/9/2013 3:15:30 PM
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It is possibly record when you check the stocks. I think we are now in record territory if not already but this Q4 will bring that

Cowan LRA Model
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Re: Sept 3MMA Sales A Record; Sept Actual Sales Not!
Cowan LRA Model   11/6/2013 2:04:03 PM
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Hi Rich - both sets of global semiconductor sales numbers (the 3MMA and the monthly actuals) are self-consistent. As a matter of fact the SIA reports the 3MMA sales which are derived from the actual monthly sales as collected and subsequently published by the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) organization on their website - typically on the 7th of each month. The SIA in its monthly PR states the following regarding the semiconductor sales numbers that it reports:

"All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average."

Relative to the SIA's monthly PR summarizing the GSR, Global Sales Report, the SIA points out the following

The SIA's Global Sales Report (GSR) is a three-month moving average of semiconductor sales activity. The GSR is tabulated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, which represents approximately 55 semiconductor companies worldwide. The moving average is a mathematical smoothing technique that mitigates variations due to companies' various financial calendars.

Mike Cowan

goafrit
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Going into Holiday sales
goafrit   11/5/2013 8:29:06 PM
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Interesting. They said more and more people are out of work, yet, the industry is expanding because more people are buying stuffs. The industry has been healthy over the last few quarters and we can see that in the stocks.

daleste
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CEO
Re: Going into Holiday sales
daleste   11/6/2013 8:43:28 PM
Hard to tell if the stock market is reflecting the growth of companies or just growing because the government is dumping money into it.

goafrit
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Re: Going into Holiday sales
goafrit   11/9/2013 3:16:36 PM
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I think balance sheets are getting healthier. Yes, the stocks do reflect the growth of companies. From banks to semiconductors, balance sheets have been healed and that is reflected in the movement of the stocks



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