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zewde yeraswork
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SSDs and flash makers
zewde yeraswork   12/2/2013 3:51:12 PM
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It seems highly likely to me that as the price expected by the market for SSD's falls, the available margin for anybody other than the NAND makers disappears. It makes sense for the NAND makers to want to control the format their products are sold in and to make their products look best, hence doing their own SSD's or even their own controllers. By doing this the SSD's can get closer to being competitive in price to HDD's, enough for their own advantages in terms of speed, shock resistance power etc to make sales happen.
It's only natural that computer manufacturers are ditching SSDs given the greater cost compared to HDDs, unless consumers want to upgrade which is only going to account for a very small space within the larger market. As for flash makers trying to grab business from independnet card makers, regulators would have been all over that had the idea come to the surface, not to mention it may not be worth the costs of selling below what it takes to manufacture the components.

 

jeremybirch
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CEO
Re: survivors
jeremybirch   12/2/2013 11:49:11 AM
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It seems highly likely to me that as the price expected by the market for SSD's falls, the available margin for anybody other than the NAND makers disappears. It makes sense for the NAND makers to want to control the format their products are sold in and to make their products look best, hence doing their own SSD's or even their own controllers. By doing this the SSD's can get closer to being competitive in price to HDD's, enough for their own advantages in terms of speed, shock resistance power etc to make sales happen.


Note that at the same time the computer manufacturers are ditching SSD's in the sense of a bought in HDD replacement, and building their own on the motherboard - look at the latest MacBook's.


SSD as a plugin replacement for HDD's may therefore have only a limited market lifetime in newly manufactured equipment, leaving consumer end upgrades as the only market.

rick merritt
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Author
Re: survivors
rick merritt   12/1/2013 9:02:10 PM
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You could make a case the handful of global flash makers are using their clout and lower costs to grab buisness from independent card makers. I'm not sure if that's a big enough issue to arouse regulators.

I know the price pressure out there is intense. Anyone haerd of selling below cost to buy market share?

KB3001
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CEO
Re: survivors
KB3001   11/30/2013 9:45:04 AM
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Is it possible that to much vertical integration will lead to legal action?

Why? As long as they are not selling below cost, they are within the law.

selinz
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CEO
Re: survivors
selinz   11/29/2013 2:47:16 AM
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This seems to point to Samsung as the bad guy. Is it possible that to much vertical integration will lead to legal action? 

rick merritt
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Author
Re: survivors
rick merritt   11/27/2013 3:45:34 PM
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I have to bite the bullet here on OCZ.

Talwalkar mentioned them and Kingston several times and I INFERED he was suggesting they were among the likely survivors. My bad.

If they are a strong surival candidate I'd hate to be employed by one of the weaker competitors.

Interesting that Toshiba may buy them or their assets. Again it reinforces the overall story that the NAND vendors are pushing their way into this market, forcing the consolidaiton.

amartin212
User Rank
Freelancer
Re: survivors
amartin212   11/27/2013 3:37:05 PM
How very timely that OCZ reported today that they will file for bankruptcy and try to sell their assets to Toshiba. OCZ's previous management often blamed their slower than expected sales growth on NAND supply shortages however I don't think that was the entire story. It's quite sad that such great technology was so mismanaged (as is happening with Violin Memory). Sometimes "visionary" CEOs that ignore all opposition and charge on ahead hoping the market will catch up to them if only they spend enough are in the end just crazy not eccentric.

RGRU
User Rank
Manager
Re: survivors
RGRU   11/27/2013 2:15:26 PM
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Well, I had no idea it would happen within 24 hours.  Nice call... LOL

ElishaMemoryVentures
User Rank
Rookie
Re: Conflicting news
ElishaMemoryVentures   11/27/2013 1:57:07 PM
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According to most data sources and nand producers, nand prices have been steadily declining for last several months. Lsi issues are due to samsung delivering new ssds with their own controller. Side note ... two of the largest acquisitions listedb were by wd..... which is not a pc vendor or a nand producer

rick merritt
User Rank
Author
Re: Conflicting news
rick merritt   11/27/2013 1:26:18 PM
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@RGARVIN640: Talwalkar said last week that NAND flash is starting to stabalize. Analysts in this story said it could remain high for another year+ based on capex retrenchments.

HP's CEO said yesterday that DRAM prices for PCs are expected to be high through the next three months anyway.

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