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Cowan LRA Model
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Re: Forecast for 2016?
Cowan LRA Model   12/14/2013 3:29:03 PM
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Hi Jessica - 2016 is well beyond my "crystal ball's" (mathematical) capability. The Cowan LRA Model, in the way that it is presently configured, can "look out" a minimum of 5 quarters to a maximum of 8 quarters worth of quarterly forecast estimates.

The former forecast horizon (5 quarters) takes it to the end of 2014. The latter forecast horizon (8 quarters) would run through 2015. The forecast results for 2015's outlook will be generated once year 2013's final sales are published by the WSTS, typically at the end of January 2014! Therefore, once 2013 monthly sales numbers are "cast in concrete," I rerun the model's statistics on 30 years worth of historical monthly sales numbers (from 1984 though 2013) in order to update the linear regression parameters that are an integral part of the forecast analysis methodology. Consequently, in early February, 2014 the forecasting model will "spit out" its updated "thinking" for the four quarters of 2014 as well as its "first look" at 2015's by-quarter sales forecast numbers. So stay tuned for 2015's forecast predictions.

The only market researcher that I am aware of that has a forecast for 2016 is Databeans who, at the beginning of this year, predicted that 2016's global semiconductor sales would reach $404.6 billion resulting in a yr-o-yr sales growth expectation of 8.5% compared to 2015 sales forecast estimate of $373.0 billion. See following URL = (http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1263022) for details.

Mike Cowan   

zewde yeraswork
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Re: Forecast for 2016?
zewde yeraswork   12/13/2013 1:27:30 PM
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It seems like we've been getting a lot of mixed messages so far this year and this quarter. Some reports have higher expectations for growth. Others lower. There are reasons for both but there doesn't seem to be an overwhelming consensus in either direction.

The MicroMan
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If I can Ad...
The MicroMan   12/12/2013 1:32:11 PM
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You know, I'll bet EETimes would sell you advertising space.

Jessica Lipsky
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Forecast for 2016?
Jessica Lipsky   12/12/2013 1:06:10 PM
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As both KPMG and commentors predict modest growth in the coming year, what do you think the industry outlook is for 2016? Will we continue to see growth, will revenue decline in the US as China (may or may not) take the lead in manufacturing, or will burgeoning applications markets make the difference?

Cowan LRA Model
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Re: Global Semi Sales Growth Expectations For 2013 And 2014
Cowan LRA Model   12/12/2013 12:15:48 PM
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Hi Rick - fire on the URL that I provided in my original comment. This will "lead you" to my monthly forecast update which I post on the weSRCH.com website. In my latest write-up you will find a table where I have compiled a long list of other market watchers/researchers' forecast expectations for both 2013 and 2014.

You might also want to "check out" the following URL for GSA's tracking of sales growth expectations for 2014 and 2013 from various semiconductor market watchers: URL = (http://www.gsaglobal.org/gsa-resources/forecasts/)  

Mike Cowan

rick merritt
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Re: Global Semi Sales Growth Expectations For 2013 And 2014
rick merritt   12/12/2013 11:22:38 AM
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@Mike Cowan: Thanks for adding your perspective to the mix.

I'd love to hear whether others are a little more or a little less bullish on 2014.

Cowan LRA Model
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Global Semi Sales Growth Expectations For 2013 And 2014
Cowan LRA Model   12/12/2013 9:29:15 AM
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Hi Jessica - the latest run of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales indicates relatively good agreement qualitatively to KPMG's revenue growth for 2014 compared to 2013's expected sales growth result. The model's updated sales growth expectations for 2013 and 2014 (based on the recently released WSTS October 2013's HBR as posted on their website) came in at 4.3 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. These two back-to-back sales growth forecasts - remember that 2013 has not officially closed out relative to a "final" sales number - therefore portray year 2014's sales growth quite comparable to 2013's forecast estimate implying basically flat sales growth - no year-over-year momentum - which is, in essence, what KPMG's semiconductor executive survey nets out for next year's sales growth prediction. For details on the latest Cowan LRA Model's forecast numbers for 2013 and 2014 as well as a summary of what other semiconductor market watchers are "thinking" for sales growth results for both years see the following URL = (http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/docx-EL1SE1J5APKCT-latest-cowan-lra-model-s-global-semi-sales-forecast-results-for-2013-and-2014).

Mike Cowan, Independent semiconductor market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting worldwide semiconductor sales.

 

zewde yeraswork
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China
zewde yeraswork   12/12/2013 8:54:34 AM
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There seems to be a consensus that China's rise economically within the tech industry is largely a result of its significant presence in the chip market.



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