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junko.yoshida
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Re: Value of smartphones
junko.yoshida   1/31/2014 12:05:50 AM
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@Patk0317, ahh, thanks for your reminder. Yes, the medical impact of medical wearables is something I am planning to look into! Good points. 

Patk0317
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Re: Value of smartphones
Patk0317   1/30/2014 10:02:05 PM
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Great article! One thing still out on wearables. Will they have any negative physiological effects? It would be ironic if medical wearable a actually caused medical issues long term.

junko.yoshida
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Re: Too little data, too much extrapolation
junko.yoshida   1/30/2014 9:18:26 PM
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@jnashee, i see what you are saying. The three things that I mentioned may not be directly linked, but they are, nonetheless. important data points that speak of a trend -- the trend of maturing smartphone market.  

junko.yoshida
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Re: Agree and disagree
junko.yoshida   1/30/2014 9:08:34 PM
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@Loring, yes, I am being provocative. That's my job.

However, one of the things that I probably didn't explain it well. I am NOT saying that smartphones will disappear. They will live for decades. But the very nature of smartphones will change. Rather than it serving as a platform to integrate a lot of things on, I am predicting its core value will be reduced to its modem. It's a commodity that everyone will use. And yet, the real value of the smartphone lives in other things -- peripherals -- people will use which will simply wirelessly connected to the smartphone that everyone has.

I don't think any wearable devices we know it today WILL replace the smartphone.

The smartphone will be there -- intact. But we will have a variety of devices (none of which will have as huge a volume as the smartphone does) that are designed to leverage the smartphone.

Loring Wirbel
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Re: Agree and disagree
Loring Wirbel   1/30/2014 8:26:46 PM
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I wonder if Junko is simply being provocative on the form-factor issue.  Google has always been a failure at directing hardware architectures, but the death of the smartphone?  I'd say it has a far greater guaranteed lifetime than either the tablet or wearables, simply because its hand-size is handy!  Tablets are awkward, wearables are for the most part dumb.  I see the latter improving over time, but I think the tablet is a lot more questionable form factor than the smartphone.

rick merritt
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Agree and disagree
rick merritt   1/30/2014 8:01:03 PM
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I see it a little differently.

For Google its always been about getting more eyeballs on more ads.

Buying Moto was a way to defined itself in the mobile patent wars and make sure Android (it's mobile eyeball catcher) won. Both jobs are now complete.

Nest I guess is the next way to get (and sell) more intimate access to the consumer. (Google has more on you than the NSA by far and they want even more!)

But $12.5B then $2.9B for Moto and $3.2B for Nest? Who pulls these numbers out of the toilet?

BTW, who is Lenovo these days? A board maker? A non-manufacturing brand company withy a thin layer of engineers like HP and Dell? China's secret weapon to buy the US tech industry?

jnashee
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Re: Too little data, too much extrapolation
jnashee   1/30/2014 7:16:23 PM
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That is my point that today they know how to make money from ads but they have been trying to bring in new revenue streams because any management would want multiple products out there to hedge their bets. But they don't have any other viable alternate product that brings in cash. They tried selling music. Didn't work. They are selling enterprise services but isn't exactly a rage.


Anyways, my original point was that the three activities that the writer tried to link aren't really related all that much so the conclusion that smartphones are going down the tube does not seem sustainable.

_hm
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Tough days for Samsung in mobile
_hm   1/30/2014 6:51:08 PM
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With this news, Lenovo wil try to capture Samsung market and Samsung will face tough days ahead.

With Samsung busy fighting with Lenovo, Apple will gain better profit.

 

alex_m1
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Re: Value of smartphones
alex_m1   1/30/2014 6:22:00 PM
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I personally think the wearables won't be close to replacing the phone market. The reason isthat mobiles got so popular was that they offered a solutions for basic needs: boredom and wanting to be distracted. And they are addictive. And they were without competition.

By those criteria most wearable are less appealing(maybe with exception to glass). And the numbers talk for themself - the market estimates are much lower than mobile market.

My guess about what will replace the smartphone market is virtual reality glasses(and the required strong pc's). Valve thinks they'll be perfect in 2 years , and perfect meaning giving you the experience of presence, just being there.Users who use their research system agree. Others described this experience as being inside a dream. And many content authors are very excited about it , so there be plenty of amazing content.

 

junko.yoshida
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Re: Lenovo?
junko.yoshida   1/30/2014 5:51:54 PM
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yeah, true.  Making any blanket statements on any one company would not be so helpful. Thanks for chiming in. 

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