@jnashee, i see what you are saying. The three things that I mentioned may not be directly linked, but they are, nonetheless. important data points that speak of a trend -- the trend of maturing smartphone market.
@Loring, yes, I am being provocative. That's my job.
However, one of the things that I probably didn't explain it well. I am NOT saying that smartphones will disappear. They will live for decades. But the very nature of smartphones will change. Rather than it serving as a platform to integrate a lot of things on, I am predicting its core value will be reduced to its modem. It's a commodity that everyone will use. And yet, the real value of the smartphone lives in other things -- peripherals -- people will use which will simply wirelessly connected to the smartphone that everyone has.
I don't think any wearable devices we know it today WILL replace the smartphone.
The smartphone will be there -- intact. But we will have a variety of devices (none of which will have as huge a volume as the smartphone does) that are designed to leverage the smartphone.
I wonder if Junko is simply being provocative on the form-factor issue. Google has always been a failure at directing hardware architectures, but the death of the smartphone? I'd say it has a far greater guaranteed lifetime than either the tablet or wearables, simply because its hand-size is handy! Tablets are awkward, wearables are for the most part dumb. I see the latter improving over time, but I think the tablet is a lot more questionable form factor than the smartphone.
That is my point that today they know how to make money from ads but they have been trying to bring in new revenue streams because any management would want multiple products out there to hedge their bets. But they don't have any other viable alternate product that brings in cash. They tried selling music. Didn't work. They are selling enterprise services but isn't exactly a rage.
Anyways, my original point was that the three activities that the writer tried to link aren't really related all that much so the conclusion that smartphones are going down the tube does not seem sustainable.
I personally think the wearables won't be close to replacing the phone market. The reason isthat mobiles got so popular was that they offered a solutions for basic needs: boredom and wanting to be distracted. And they are addictive. And they were without competition.
By those criteria most wearable are less appealing(maybe with exception to glass). And the numbers talk for themself - the market estimates are much lower than mobile market.
My guess about what will replace the smartphone market is virtual reality glasses(and the required strong pc's). Valve thinks they'll be perfect in 2 years , and perfect meaning giving you the experience of presence, just being there.Users who use their research system agree. Others described this experience as being inside a dream. And many content authors are very excited about it , so there be plenty of amazing content.