I agree with the predition on the trend, however I think you underestimate the value of having a nice compact package of everything you want with you in your pocket (or purse for the ladies). I no longer have to carry a thumb drive, I never owned an I pod or a garmin, and I threw out my point & shoot camera. This functional integration is not going to go away and will still remain a priority to consumers. Now I agree witht the trend, synch your phone to better speakers to listen to your music, a full size screen, and I really want to see the tablet that is nothing more then a big touchscreen for my smartphone. I just think its a bit too far to predict that your phone will be reduced to an LTE Modem.
I like this vision of the future and agree with it in part, but another dimension to consider is the spread of malware and the opportunity for attackers as it becomes more common to connect your smartphone to things. particularly if they are public things. Most of these peripherals are not hardended against cyberthreats like they should be.
It seems that as the latest electronic devices become commodities, the originating companies get into trouble, because they are so used to the high profit margins of market leaders required for advanced engineering.
We saw IBM get out of PCs. We see Blackberry in trouble. Nortel got wiped out. Motorola has been bought out a couple of times. IBM is out of x86 servers. The Japanese audio/video companies are basket cases.
As an electronic device becomes a commodity, consumers expect the 10 year service life of an appliance. Margins get tight. Smart phones are approaching the commodity level as are tablets. Apple may get into trouble selling hardware, but iTunes should keep it afloat for a long time.
Once a product becomes a commodity, incorporating planned obsolescence doesn't cut it with consumers. Consumers expect a 10 year untroubled life from an appliance. More and more people are becoming disgruntled with Windows. Microsoft is diversifying into hardware, which does not compute, as it is used to high markup from its OS monopoly position, not the tight margins of an appliance manufacturer.
We can see the struggle in the marketplace in audio/video products. Audio has been a commodity for decades. Sony, a market leader, used to high margins is in real trouble, selling off its capital assets. 3D is a faded hope, despite 3D BluRays and 3D TV. 4K re-branded as UltraHD is a basket case. There is no real 4K source material, except HD BluRays enhanced for HD to UltraHD processors. Unfortunately, these 4K enhanced BluRays are unique to each 4K TV manufacturer. There are no 4K broadcast standards being seriously considered. Playstation and Xbox are repeating the HD-DVD versus BluRay war only this time half half-heartedly for 4K. The average consumer couldn't care less about quality - witness the switch from CD to MP3 or mediocre BluRay sales or HDTV eclipsed by smartphone screens.
China is being handed the exhausted technology leaders of the last century on a platter. Is the only hope for U.S. companies patent royalties? Technology is evolving away from the U.S.
Where is the next killer app we so desperately need? Nest! You've got to be kidding.
I don't understand how you come up with a $10B loss. Google most likely bought MM to get the patents so they would have an arsenal for defense against Apple and Microsoft. As I understand it, Google is keeping the patents and getting rid of the part of MM that they don't know what to do with.
I couldn't agree more. I use my smartphone less for what the phone actually has, than what it connects me too. Its the old client server model, what the servers do having a far larger application future than the client stations.
There are less applications that are best local on the smartphone than virtual on a server, the same paradigm as I use laptops and desktops today.
For Google to make a very quick shift in strategy and not worry about a $10B loss then paying 10x more for Nest takes a lot of cahones.
I couldn't agree more. To take a $10B loss selling Motorola after only 2 years of ownership despite Google's networth of $200B is still 5% of its total value. Likewise buying Nest for 10x its actual earnings is beyond logic, both deals are very high stakes intuition.
Once again you have taken a controversial stand, but I couldn't agree with you more. Both my son and daughter have Smartphones, but frankly, I just don't see the necessity of owning one. I already know where all the good restaurants are and I really like the Garmin GPS I already have. I'm not particularly interested in Facebook and I don't feel the need to cruise the Internet or check my email everywhere I go.
And most importantly, Smartphones have done nothing to improve the audio quality of voice communications which is the only reason I have a Cell Phone in the first place. Why do we not yet have cell-phones that have a 20 Hz to 20 KHz audio response? In most cases, even with the most expensive Smart-Phones, I can barely understand the other party. Many of our Sales folks have reverted back to land lines for important sales transactions so they don't have to ask the opposing party to constantly repeat themselves.
Yes Junko, the era of Smart-Phones is coming to an end... that is, unless they find another killer app.
You are right on, Junko. The now ubiquitous smartphone is your pocket portal to communicating with all people and systems in our lives including someday all of those internet-of-things we keep hearing about. It will be THE universal remote. It will be the bring-your-own HMI to everything.