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chipmonk0
User Rank
CEO
Re: Ignorance and Arrogance rules together in India Fab decision
chipmonk0   2/7/2014 5:04:00 PM
NO RATINGS
@stippu : if you attended the IESA summit earlier this week then can you please report on the announcements & discussions ( verbatim, as much as possible ) there related to these Fabs.

stippu
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Ignorance and Arrogance rules together in India Fab decision
stippu   2/7/2014 12:05:41 PM
NO RATINGS
Just been reading and trying to get a perspective on the interaction - but the only thing i can come up with is that we all can agree to disagree.

Some consider the fab in India  a BIG dream and some think it might be nightmare - but then you should realise India is huge country with its own set of political issues. And, there are people for the fab and there are people against it - not just among our EETimes readers but in the industry itself.

But lets not be so negative about it. It could be a success or it might flop and down its shutters - but it is at least a  step forward.  

It is estimated that by 2020 India will be importing electronics product worth $300 billion, which will be more than the value of its oil imports.The govt realises it needs to act now to avoid a situation where it would face difficulties in financing these imports. It feels that India should have manufacturing facilities which result in a balanced trade in electronics products and are become a part of global supply chain. And it has taken 2 years to come to this decision.

No doubt there is delayi. there is corruption. there is lobbying but name one country where there is no lobbying.

India is huge, If you just take one dimension, say languages - there are about 180 languages with 544 dialects. Forget about the villages and all that. Trying to manoeuvre through all that and different types of political parties, is not a joke. But somehow, things go on here.

Twenty years back, it took us almost a year to get a telephone connection. Now, it is just a day or two. And look at the mobile user base - 

India's mobile phone customer base rose 0.7 percent, or a net 5.7 million, in November to 881.13 million.By comparison, China, the world's biggest mobile phone market, reported a 0.5 percent monthly rise in mobile
subscribers to 1.23 billion as of end-December.

Things a moving.. there are a good number of good people trying to make things work in India and at the same time there are a good number of bad people trying to pull the whole thing done. 

Like one reader said, he will believe it only when the ground breaking ceremony happens. Believe it or not, I do too. 

India is a strange country - and incredible things happen here. Incrediibly good and incredibly bad too.. But thats India's DNA. Forces of dark and light complement each other.

Lets give it abbout 10 years from the day the building starts.

GSMD explains a lot of things.. thanks.

Also someone was asking which process nodes - all that the company's spokesperson says is from 90-60-45 nm. And, they will change accordingly because the technology provider has not put into clauses against change.

 

 

 

 

stippu
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Ignorance and Arrogance rules together in India Fab decision
stippu   2/7/2014 12:05:36 PM
NO RATINGS
Just been reading and trying to get a perspective on the interaction - but the only thing i can come up with is that we all can agree to disagree.

Some consider the fab in India  a BIG dream and some think it might be nightmare - but then you should realise India is huge country with its own set of political issues. And, there are people for the fab and there are people against it - not just among our EETimes readers but in the industry itself.

But lets not be so negative about it. It could be a success or it might flop and down its shutters - but it is at least a  step forward.  

It is estimated that by 2020 India will be importing electronics product worth $300 billion, which will be more than the value of its oil imports.The govt realises it needs to act now to avoid a situation where it would face difficulties in financing these imports. It feels that India should have manufacturing facilities which result in a balanced trade in electronics products and are become a part of global supply chain. And it has taken 2 years to come to this decision.

No doubt there is delayi. there is corruption. there is lobbying but name one country where there is no lobbying.

India is huge, If you just take one dimension, say languages - there are about 180 languages with 544 dialects. Forget about the villages and all that. Trying to manoeuvre through all that and different types of political parties, is not a joke. But somehow, things go on here.

Twenty years back, it took us almost a year to get a telephone connection. Now, it is just a day or two. And look at the mobile user base - 

India's mobile phone customer base rose 0.7 percent, or a net 5.7 million, in November to 881.13 million.By comparison, China, the world's biggest mobile phone market, reported a 0.5 percent monthly rise in mobile
subscribers to 1.23 billion as of end-December.

Things a moving.. there are a good number of good people trying to make things work in India and at the same time there are a good number of bad people trying to pull the whole thing done. 

Like one reader said, he will believe it only when the ground breaking ceremony happens. Believe it or not, I do too. 

India is a strange country - and incredible things happen here. Incrediibly good and incredibly bad too.. But thats India's DNA. Forces of dark and light complement each other.

Lets give it abbout 10 years from the day the building starts.

GSMD explains a lot of things.. thanks.

Also someone was asking which process nodes - all that the company's spokesperson says is from 90-60-45 nm. And, they will change accordingly because the technology provider has not put into clauses against change.

 

 

 

 

stippu
User Rank
Blogger
Re: Ignorance and Arrogance rules together in India Fab decision
stippu   2/7/2014 12:05:30 PM
NO RATINGS
Just been reading and trying to get a perspective on the interaction - but the only thing i can come up with is that we all can agree to disagree.

Some consider the fab in India  a BIG dream and some think it might be nightmare - but then you should realise India is huge country with its own set of political issues. And, there are people for the fab and there are people against it - not just among our EETimes readers but in the industry itself.

But lets not be so negative about it. It could be a success or it might flop and down its shutters - but it is at least a  step forward.  

It is estimated that by 2020 India will be importing electronics product worth $300 billion, which will be more than the value of its oil imports.The govt realises it needs to act now to avoid a situation where it would face difficulties in financing these imports. It feels that India should have manufacturing facilities which result in a balanced trade in electronics products and are become a part of global supply chain. And it has taken 2 years to come to this decision.

No doubt there is delayi. there is corruption. there is lobbying but name one country where there is no lobbying.

India is huge, If you just take one dimension, say languages - there are about 180 languages with 544 dialects. Forget about the villages and all that. Trying to manoeuvre through all that and different types of political parties, is not a joke. But somehow, things go on here.

Twenty years back, it took us almost a year to get a telephone connection. Now, it is just a day or two. And look at the mobile user base - 

India's mobile phone customer base rose 0.7 percent, or a net 5.7 million, in November to 881.13 million.By comparison, China, the world's biggest mobile phone market, reported a 0.5 percent monthly rise in mobile
subscribers to 1.23 billion as of end-December.

Things a moving.. there are a good number of good people trying to make things work in India and at the same time there are a good number of bad people trying to pull the whole thing done. 

Like one reader said, he will believe it only when the ground breaking ceremony happens. Believe it or not, I do too. 

India is a strange country - and incredible things happen here. Incrediibly good and incredibly bad too.. But thats India's DNA. Forces of dark and light complement each other.

Lets give it abbout 10 years from the day the building starts.

GSMD explains a lot of things.. thanks.

Also someone was asking which process nodes - all that the company's spokesperson says is from 90-60-45 nm. And, they will change accordingly because the technology provider has not put into clauses against change.

 

 

 

 

chipmonk0
User Rank
CEO
Re: A meaningful discussion is sorely needed
chipmonk0   2/7/2014 1:56:34 AM
NO RATINGS
the statement " ... taping out parts since the late 90s. .. " once again exposes the pathetic ignorance and arogance about Wafer Fabs among the johnny come lately low-rent programmers ( because thats what most of them are ) of Bangalore that is behind this desire and decision to start CMOS Fabs in India with no prior investment in Labs and staff. If one thinks that knowing Design Rules is all it takes to process wafers at high yield or knowing SPICE simulation of a transistor is all that it takes to design the next generation then they are in for a nasty surprise. To do these things well you need about 150 PhDs in Solid State Physics, Materials Science, Chemistry etc. not just EEs conversant with EDA software or Test. One big reason why there is no Silicon left in Silicon Valley ( except Intel ) is that the EEs who formed the majority in most Semiconductor Co.s in the Valley could not cope with Moore's Law as the going got tough since the late '80s, had to abandon their Fabs and run to TSMC.

GSMD
User Rank
Manager
Govt. Incentive details
GSMD   2/6/2014 9:08:45 PM
NO RATINGS
Just got the morning paper (yes I still get news via dead trees!)  and there was a convenient Govt. ad on the Incentive scheme for electronics manuufacturing. As I repeatedly keep pointing out, there is no Govt. involvement in any of these projects. Anyway the scheme details

- 25% subsidy on capital equipment for local market products, also local tax on capital equioment is waived

- 25% subsidy for exports (they get other incentives)

But what I like is the 75-100% subsidy on training. Really helps small manufacturers. You can never over spend on education and training.

Investment proposals (subsidies will be 22-25% of these, a total of about 2.5B)

Semicon fab - 8 B (4B per fab)

Mobile phones and telecom - 1.3 B

LED fab - 288M

CE appliances - 127M

Semicon testing - 120M

Auto/Ind Elec - 113M

LED lighting - 32M

Defence Elec - 32 M

Photovoltaics - 10M

Samsung and Bosch have got subsidies for 12+M each, for CE and quto elec.

Gives an idea about where the manufacturing investments are heading.

Local LCD TV production also shot up by 27.6 % inspite of a bad economy.

Pleas also note total Govt. subsidy for fab  is only 1.7B, which really is chump change. The proposed power subsidy for gas powered plants (which fortunately got rejected yesterday) was alone 4B. Should give some perspective on subisdy levels in India !

GSMD
User Rank
Manager
Re: A meaningful discussion is sorely needed
GSMD   2/6/2014 8:26:38 PM
NO RATINGS
I forgot to address one major issue. I had mentioned this earlier but let me stress this again. 

This is not a govt. fab. This is a fab owned by private consortiums. So the viability call is made by Private investors and those are funded by Private equity firms. The funds presumably coming from investor's across the world. Presumably they want a good return on their investment.

The Govt's role is merely to act as an enabler and provide minimal subsidy. And assure some business from the strategic sector and from  lgovt smart cards, transport smart cards and utility equipment (zigbee meters are a huge business, all designed and manufactured locally)

So why is the Govt's ability to pull this off being called into question again and again when the risk is primarily on private investors and the operations are also being handled by the private consortiums.

Yes a lot of work has been done by the govt. but that is becuase there is a subsidy involved and the Govt. would like to see this succeed.  The GOI's main investment is actually far more in creating training and support infrastructure for the EDM eco-system rather than in these fabs.  And that is how it should be since the Govt. would have no clue as to how to run a fab profitably nor did the GOI ever indicate that it wants to build its own fab.

 

GSMD
User Rank
Manager
Re: A meaningful discussion is sorely needed
GSMD   2/6/2014 8:00:40 PM
NO RATINGS
This is the kind of post I am talking about. vauge generalities and sweeping statements. Assuming that everyone else has no clue about what they are talking about.

This poster is very much familiar with the fab business and has been taping out parts since the late 90s. This poster has had foundry relationships with Samsung, TSMC, UMC, Dongbu, IBM, Intel (yes Intel), Fujitsu, NEC and SMIC. This poster currently has tapeouts on the pipeline, a 1 Ghz industrial controler at 40nm (hopefully end of the year) and one in early 2015. When Intel first tried to make a go as a merchant fab, this poster's company was one of the first one approached to prove design support. This poster's lab also works with 28nm vendors for low power optimization for large multi-core setups after from designing a new family of CPUs from single core Cortex type SocS to Kinight's landing level 100 core HPC parts.

Wrt design and manufacturing, there is more than enough design and ems capability. Problem is a wonky duty structure and port congestion. Case in point, last year when free baggage allowance of incoming passengers was reduced so that TVs were charged at higher customs duty, local production shot up 20% in three months. When a 5+% duty was levied setup boxes, production shifted local. Ask an EMS like Jabil.  Please come up with convincing arguments when you talk about lack of local design and manufacturing. What are you talking about ? PCB design, PCB manufacturing, assembly lines, test facilities, HW design engineers, SW design engineers, mechanical design, EMI/EMC, product certification, component supply/chain? I am just wrapping up a country wide survey of 600 odd companies with 150 companies directly interviewed to do a capability audit. The audit's results are not public yet. 

Do you seriously think a great deal of due diligence was not gone through and all the issues you raise and a million more were not considered before the Finance ministry of India, green lighted the funds. I happen to be privy to a lot of those technical discussions. 

So to answer your question there is a competent domestic EDM industry already available, the only missing piece is a fab. If you think I am talking thru my hat, let us have a discussion on specifics. Take a specific example like a smart phone and see where the problems arise if you go through the entire process of creating one from scratch.

There are two lacunae in the Indian capability map that bothers me.

1) Mechanical tooling, very expensive in India. I think it has to do with CE products designed outside India being manufactured locally. The vendors assure me that if the volumes pick up, they will be cost compettive.

2) Displays. There is a curious lack of focus on this area. But better to get one fab up and running before you venture into displays.

chipmonk0
User Rank
CEO
Re: A meaningful discussion is sorely needed
chipmonk0   2/6/2014 12:14:39 PM
NO RATINGS
The poster is obviously not familiar with the technical & economic challenges of making Wafer Fabs successful. I will venture to guess that is probably true in general among the boosters and policymakers behind the Fab decision in India as well. Starting Fabs in the absence of a competent domestic systems design / manufacturing industry is unfortunately akin to building Castles in the Air. It would be a waste of resources and won't save a bit of foreign exchange. Only the Fab tool vendors will come out ahead. Read my earlier post to comprehend the issues.

GSMD
User Rank
Manager
Re: Should wait for election?
GSMD   2/6/2014 9:50:25 AM
NO RATINGS
1. HCL and Wipro are getting out of electronics manufacturing. So no go there. TATA is a better bet.

 

2. India is not nationalistic like China or paranoid about foreign companies. We just want local manufacturing, it is not an issue if there is defacto foreign control. Check the auto industry. Apart from a  few sectors, 100% foreign owenership is allowed, even in telecom, unlike the US. Bootom line is current account deficit (you do not wanted to be forced to export just to cover your imports) and local job creation. 

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