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joscios
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Re: Great growth
joscios   2/8/2014 2:21:28 PM
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Thanks for the great post. There are so many things I didn't know about it.

 

 

Unterwäsche

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Blogger
Re: 8 percent
zewde yeraswork   2/7/2014 10:34:04 AM
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There is a great deal of uncertainty now that the transition is underway, but then again there was already a certain degree of uncertainty before as the market settled in and the same cycle repeated itself. Uncertainty is just part of the dynamic with these kinds of forecasts. The only way to reduce uncertainty is to look at specific outcomes over many years carefully, which may be hard to do given the current state of the market.

ddnrkik
User Rank
Rookie
Re: Great growth
ddnrkik   2/6/2014 9:47:56 PM
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great info....

 

Kaos

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Re: 8 percent
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:31:36 PM
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Hi Jessica and Jim - I am in the circa 4 percent camp for 2014's sales growth expectation. See my detailed comment BELOW. 

Mike Cowan (Independent semiconductor market watcher)

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Latest Cowan LRA Model's Forecast Numbers For 2014
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:06:04 PM
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Hi Jessica - per the subject I have just run my LRA forecasting model using the latest end-of-year 2013 sales numbers recently posted (Feb 4th, 2014) by the SIA / WSTS. The resulting global semi sales and sales growth numbers "spit out" by the model are summarized below:

1Q14 = $74.91 billion w/ yr-o-yr sales growth of 6.3%;

2Q14 = $77.16 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.4%;

3Q14 = $83.11 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.2%;

and 4Q14 = $81.49 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 1.9%.

Therefore, the model's latest, just updated full year 2014 sales and sales growth expectations are $316.668 billion and 3.6%, respectively.

These latest Cowan LRA Model's predictions are in excellent agreement with the WSTS's Dec 2013 sales forecast estimate of $316.636 billion which, employing the final 2013 sales number of $305.584, corresponds to a 2014 yr-o-yr sales growth forecast of 3.6% also.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales  

JimMcGregor
User Rank
Blogger
Re: 8 percent
JimMcGregor   2/6/2014 2:19:45 PM
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I think 4% revenue growth is more reasonable and still optimistic. The market is changing with increased competition and more focus on mobile, embedded, and new IoT applications that are often smaller and less expensive. Units should still continue to grow, but we are likely on a plateau for revenue.

LarryM99
User Rank
CEO
Re: 8 percent
LarryM99   2/6/2014 1:25:37 PM
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I am thinking that there is good growth in the market but not in the areas where it has come before. Contrast this to the ugly things that have come out of Intel and other traditional leaders recently and you see a real transition away from dependence on PC growth and towards cell phones / tablets / smart thermostats and smoke alarms. That type of shift tends to introduce more uncertainty into predictions.

Jessica Lipsky
User Rank
Author
Re: 8 percent
Jessica Lipsky   2/6/2014 12:39:10 PM
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DB couldn't give additional details on why they forecast 8% growth, which is double that of the WSTS. WSTS/SIA (which use the same numbers) couldn't comment beyond "improved macro picture" - which makes me curious why there is such a difference in estimates. Is ~4% or 8% growth in 2014 more likely?

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Blogger
8 percent
zewde yeraswork   2/6/2014 12:18:33 PM
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Over 8 percent growth is a healthy forecast. We'll see if that holds up in the coming year with some of the disruption in the overall markets. So far though, so good.

daleste
User Rank
CEO
Re: Great growth
daleste   2/6/2014 9:43:32 AM
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Yes, rain would be good here in Dallas also.  At least it is snowing today.

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